Will Win/Should Win - Matthew Weiner "Mad Men - The Suitcase"
Could Win - Jason Katims "Friday Night Lights - Always"
Commentary- I would love to see FNL win a big award, but I don't think that anyone in this category can overcome the power of The Suitcase episode. Not only is it the best choice to win this award, but it could win Jon Hamm and Elisabeth Moss their first Emmys as well. Sharp, conflicting, and stunning, The Suitcase is sure to take the prize.
Will Win - Steven Levitan and Jeffrey Richman "Modern Family - Caught in the Act"
Should Win - Greg Daniels "The Office - Goodbye Michael"
Could Win - Louie C.K. "Louis - Poker/Divorce"
Commentary - Maybe I'm just sentimental, but I think the Goodbye Michael episode was pitch perfect, and while I understand why it probably won't win, that doesn't mean I am happy about it. That being said I think Episodes and 30 Rock are out of the equation. However, Louis could pull an upset here, as it did when it got the nomination in the first place. But I think that in the Modern Family sweep of the Emmys this year, that it will easily take this award, and probably will continue to take it in the manner of Mad Men until the Emmys decide they are done with it.
Writing for a TV Movie/Miniseries
Will Win - Todd Haynes and Jon Raymond "Mildred Pierce"
Should Win - Peter Gould "Too Big to Fail"
Could Win - Julian Fellowes "Downton Abbey"
Commentary - This is an interesting race, as Mildred Pierce looks to sweep the major awards, but it has some competition. I would love to see Peter Gould win, as I thought Mildred Pierce could be jolting at times, not the best writing strategy, but I think his biggest competition will actually be Oscar winner Julian Fellowes. Downton Abbey is sharply written (as was Gosford Park when he won for it), and it may steal an upset award.
Writing for a Variety Series
Will Win - The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
Should Win/Could Win - The Colbert Report
Commentary - I don't think anyone else has a shot but these two. Daily Show is the safe bet, although Colbert has won in the past. I think point I am going to be safe, but I am not counting out the alternative.
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