The Oscar Narrative: BAFTA and The Oscar Race

Since the Brits decided to move their awards before the Oscars, they have become an incredibly important precursor to their American counterpart. The estimate is that 10% of the American Academy are British. And the tastes do seem to cross over pretty well. When there surprises or upsets at the Oscars, they seem to be foretold by BAFTA. So this year, I am going to pay close attention to BAFTA, and see what it really tells us about the Oscar race.

The first thing is that Dallas Buyers Club and Her are really only American phenomena. This is not completely surprising, and I still think both are in good positions to get Best Picture nominations. But it is interesting to see both shut out completely, even McConaughey and Leto. The second thing is that while 12 Years a Slave is still strong, it is not a slam dunk. Gravity leads the nominations (including an interesting Best British Film nod), and it really could go all the way, especially if the DGA goes Cuaron (which I really think can happen). The other big contender is American Hustle. Now I know you are thinking: haven't these two been its biggest competition all along? Yes, it is no new revelation that Gravity and American Hustle are 12 Years a Slave's biggest competitors. But today's nominations are incredibly telling on just how close this race is. Gravity leads, hitting every mark including Best Original Screenplay, which is incredible considering how much undeserved flack the script has received. And American Hustle pulled off at BAFTA this year what SLP pulled off last year at the Oscars getting all four acting nods. And the Brits have never been the biggest David O. Russell fans. I now think that it could pull of the miraculous feat two years in a row. I also think that it could emerge as the odds-on favorite going into Oscar night.

Some other little thoughts popped into mind as I read through the nominations, and I am sure I am forgetting some.

• The DGA and BAFTA director nods matched up. I expect the Director's branch of the Academy to throw us some curve ball, although at this point this could easily be the top five. 
• Saving Mr. Banks may have snuck into that British film category, but it still feels like it is underperforming. I keep expecting it to explode, and I may have to get used to the fact that it just might not happen. Ever. 
• Meryl Streep's road to a third Oscar were cemented with BAFTA. Now, I know that it was a biopic of a legendary British political figure, but it is clear that BAFTA loves Streep. So that fact that she was snubbed (and Roberts got in meaning that they saw the film) might be telling. It is never a safe to bet against Meryl Streep, and I have, to date, never done it. But as of now, I think I may swap here out, and go with the BAFTA lineup that includes Amy Adams. If American Hustle is such a knockout, and August: Osage County is flat lining, then it really could happen. 
• Philomena gets into Best Feature, which is a nice boost for the film. However, I still don't think it can crack Oscar's top nine or ten (although its chances are a lot greater than they were yesterday). Instead, I think they will join more British favored productions such as Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, that missed Oscar. But I do think that like Tinker, it solidifies several nominations including Actress and Adapted Screenplay. 
• Inside Llewyn Davis got Original Screenplay, Sound, and Cinematography, and all well-deserved. But still misses out in top categories, and I really don't think it can muster enough support to break out of some of these below the line categories. 
• I'm not sure if The Wind Rises was even eligible, and BAFTA did go for Despicable Me when the Academy did not, but Despicable Me 2 has hit a lot of precursors, and may even sneak in to the Oscar top five. 
• Finally, Behind the Candelabra was eligible here and picked up some nice nods, even for Matt Damon. But I was surprised to see Michael Douglas got snubbed. Although the Best Actor race is so competitive, I bet it was close.