Will Win/Should Win - Julianna Margulies "The Good Wife"
Could Win - Elisabeth Moss "Mad Men", Meirelle Enos "The Killing", Connie Britton "Friday Night Lights"
Commentary - This race is definitely the closest of any of the major categories, with four, maybe five women, all have a stake in the race. I love Mariska Hargitay, and when she won her Emmy for SVU she deserved it. But how she keeps getting nominated despite the show dipping in quality, and the fact that she outlasted Kyra Sedgwick is still shocking to me. Beyond her though, the other five contenders could all legitimately take the prize without my jaw dropping too far. Kathy Bates could have been in the top three had she submitted one of her flashier episodes, but she doesn't do much in hers. That being said, she is Kathy Bates, she is an actor's actor, and she is in a David E. Kelly show, all of which seem to pull off surprise Emmys. So while I don't think she will win, I will not be surprised if she does. Connie Britton has the distinction of being in a show that is going off the air, has the sentimentality factor, and has recently been put on the Emmy radar. But Friday Night Lights is an ensemble piece to the max, and while she is always great, she doesn't have as much screen time as her fellow nominees, nor as much range. A lot of people are picking the dark horse contender Meirelle Enos for The Killing, and her episode submission definitely plays in her favor. But she doesn't have the name recognition of some of the other contenders, and I'm not sure if voters forgot how fast the series declined as it came towards its frustrating season finale. So it comes down to two. The Suitcase is such a fantastic episode, and Elisabeth Moss is almost tied for first. But Jon Hamm is also fantastic in this episode, and Julianna Margulies is in the category. Last years she didn't submit correctly and she lost. But this year she hit the nail on the head, and while Moss is right on her tale, I think that Margulies is going to pull it out and win the prize.