Saturday, February 24, 2018

The Oscar Narrative: Final Oscar Predictions - Best Original and Adapted Screenplay

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win - James Ivory "Call Me By Your Name"
Could Win - Virgil Williams and Dee Rees "Mudbound"
Should Win - James Ivory "Call Me By Your Name" or Logan
Commentary - In this weird year, only one of the Best Picture nominees made the cut in this category. Mudbound has a lot of support, and if there is an upset brewing, that is the one to take down Call Me By Your Name. But after WGA and BAFTA, and the reception that the legendary James Ivory has received when he wins these awards, I think this is Ivory's to lose.

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win - Jordan Peele "Get Out"
Could Win - Martin McDonagh "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
Should Win - Greta Gerwig "Lady Bird"
Commentary - In recent years, we have seen truly original projects win out like Her, Midnight in Paris, Birdman, etc. BAFTA went McDonagh, WGA went Peele, GG went McDonagh, and Critics Choice went Peele. So it is literally 50/50 in terms of the big four awards leading up to the Oscars. No matter what happens in Best Picture, I think they are going to give Get Out something, and of the two screenplays, this truly is the most original of the bunch. In a squeaker, I am going for Peele.

Friday, February 23, 2018

The Oscar Narrative: Final Oscar Predictions - Best Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and Foreign Language Film

Best Animated Feature
Will Win - Coco
Could Win - n/a
Should Win - Coco
Commentary - If anything wins other than Coco, it will go down as one of the greatest Oscar upsets in history, you can bank on this one.

Best Documentary Feature
Will Win - Faces Places
Could Win - Last Men in Aleppo and Icarus
Should Win - Faces Places
Commentary - This whole race got shaken when Jane was inexplicably left off the list. Winners in this category split between feel good and hard-hitting zeitgeist, which to me narrows it down to three. Last Men in Aleppo and Icarus are the zeitgeist films focusing on Syria and Russia respectively. Faces Places is the feel good film about a legend and her career. Both Icarus and Last Men have mediocre reviews (not that Oscar voters probably know that), and both have only recently been elevated to a potential winner status because of the Jane snub. Last Men in Aleppo made headlines, like The Salesman, due to visa issues under the new administration. But it also feels like last year's news, and it hasn't been as prominent in the news as The Salesman's headlines were. I think that a fantastic story about a revolutionary female filmmaker in the year of Me Too and Times Up will sway more Oscar voters then half-decent zeitgeist efforts.

Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win - A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
Could Win - The Square (Sweden)
Should Win - A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
Commentary - This is a really interesting year for this category. It has kind of flown under the radar all year, and the nominees seem to be lost in the overall Oscar conversation. The Square has been popular since Cannes, but it is really divisive, and has not won as much as folks thought it would. A Fantastic Woman feels like it is in the lead here, being a very timely topic that discusses issues that transgender individuals face. This also could turn off some voters. While Hollywood is always labeled as liberal, there are a lot of older, more conservative voters within the Academy that might go for something else. I also think Loveless needs to be taken into consideration, but in the end I think it is A Fantastic Woman's to lose.

Thursday, February 22, 2018

The Oscar Narrative: Final Oscar Predictions - Best Cinematography, Film Editing, and Production Design

Best Cinematography
Will Win - Roger Deakins "Blade Runner 2049"
Could Win - Hoyte Van Hoytema "Dunkirk" or Dan Laustsen "The Shape of Water"
Should Win - Roger Deakins "Blade Runner 2049"
Commentary - In the back of my mind, I keep think that maybe this isn't Deakins' year. This is still a real possibility with Dunkirk and Shape of Water in this race. But after he won at BAFTA, who changed its procedures so that the winners are voted on by the entire membership (like AMPAS). He still won, even though those two films were nominated as well. I think this is his year, and I think that there has been enough press and enough push to make voters realize that it is finally time.

Best Film Editing
Will Win - Dunkirk
Could Win - Baby Driver
Should Win - Dunkirk or Baby Driver
Commentary - After Baby Driver's BAFTA upset, I am really starting to think it could pull off a real shocker on Oscar night. But I am sticking with Dunkirk. It is so popular up and down the ballot, and its editing is really something to marvel. I still think its Dunkirk, but the race is a lot closer as we get to the finish line.

Best Production Design
Will Win - The Shape of Water
Could Win - Blade Runner 2049 or Beauty and the Beast
Should Win - Blade Runner 2049
Commentary - Blade Runner could win the trifecta of PD, Cinematography, and Visual Effects, all of which are blended beautifully, and Beauty and the Beast is the type of film that has done well here in the past. But for a while now, the consensus has coalesced around The Shape of Water. Plus for being such a huge technical achievement, it is not going away empty-handed in the below-the-line categories. This, and Original Score, are its two guaranteed honors for its masterful creation.

Wednesday, February 21, 2018

The Oscar Narrative: Final Oscar Predictions - Best Costume Design and Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Best Costume Design
Will Win - Phantom Thread
Could Win - Beauty and the Beast or The Shape of Water
Should Win - Beauty and the Beast
Commentary - The CDG passed over Phantom Thread for The Shape of Water, but I think that BAFTA and Critics Choice, a broader group of voters means that previous winner Mark Bridges will win again for his fashion designer threads. I still cannot imagine how Beauty and the Beast doesn't win here, but its up against two Best Picture nominees so I guess it is out. But seriously, don't be surprised if it upsets.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win - Darkest Hour
Could Win - Victoria and Abdul or Wonder
Should Win - Darkest Hour
Commentary - Biopics do really well here, and the transformation of Gary Oldman to Winston Churchill is just the kind of work that Oscar voters love in this category. I would honestly be shocked it Darkest Hour doesn't win the gold.

Costume Designer Guild (CDG) Awards

Excellence in Contemporary Film
I, Tonya – Jennifer Johnson

Excellence in Period Film
The Shape of Water – Luis Sequeira

Excellence in Sci-Fi / Fantasy Film
Wonder Woman – Lindy Hemming

Excellence in Contemporary Television
The Handmaid’s Tale – Ane Crabtree

Excellence in Period Television
The Crown – Jane Petrie

Excellence in Sci-Fi / Fantasy Television
Game of Thrones – Michele Clapton

Excellence in Short Form Design
P!NK: “Beautiful Trauma”, Music Video – Kim Bowen

Tuesday, February 20, 2018

The Oscar Narrative: Final Oscar Predictions - Best Original Score and Best Original Song

Best Original Score
Will Win - Alexandre Desplat "The Shape of Water"
Could Win - Hans Zimmer "Dunkirk"
Should Win - Hans Zimmer "Dunkirk"
Commentary - I still cannot, for the life of me, figure out how Hans Zimmer is not sweeping these awards for his Dunkirk score, but Desplat has not lost a major award yet. I don't expect an upset at the finish line.

Best Original Song
Will Win - Coco - Remember Me
Could Win - The Greatest Showman - This is Me, Mudbound - Mighty River
Should Win - Call Me By Your Name - The Mystery of Love
Commentary - This is always a tough race to predict without a clear front runner. This is Me is a huge showstopper with a Globe win, and last year's winners at the helm. But are voters really going for this film, compared to the other four nominees whose films are much more popular across the board? Mighty River would be an awesome way to honor Mary J. Blige and Mudbound. But animated films do well here, and the songwriting duo are Oscar winners already. Its a close one, but I think Remember Me will take the gold.

Monday, February 19, 2018

The Oscar Narrative: Final Oscar Predictions - Best Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Visual Effects, and Shorts

Best Sound Editing
Will Win - Dunkirk
Could Win - Baby Driver or Blade Runner 2049
Should Win - Dunkirk or Baby Driver
Commentary - The only other Best Picture nominee in this category is The Shape of Water, and unless an unexpected sweep is coming, I think this one goes to Dunkirk. It is clearly well liked, and war films tend to do well in the sound categories (Zero Dark Thirty, Hacksaw Ridge, The Hurt Locker, Black Hawk Down, American Sniper, Letters from Iwo Jima, etc.). This year, without a musical, I think that these categories will match up. The one film I think can upset here is Baby Driver. It had unexpected support in the Academy, has great music (which does well in this category), and whose sound is distinctive. But it will be hard to beat the more popular Dunkirk, whose sound work is also fantastic and distinctive.

Best Sound Mixing
Will Win - Dunkirk
Could Win - Baby Driver or Blade Runner 2049
Should Win - Baby Driver or Dunkirk
Commentary - See Sound Editing

Best Visual Effects
Will Win - Blade Runner 2049
Could Win - War for the Planet of the Apes or Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Should Win - War for the Planet of the Apes or Blade Runner 2049
Commentary - Most folks are predicting that this is the year that the Planet of the Apes trilogy, and its groundbreaking special effects will finally win Oscar gold. This could finally be the year, considering that it is not up against a Best Picture nominee (Hugo). But then again, when Dawn was nominated, it had no Best Picture nominees up against it. Instead it lost to the technical achievement film that had broader support across the categories (Interstellar). I think that with its BAFTA win, a similar fate will happen to the finale of the trilogy. While Blade Runner 2049 did not score a Best Picture or Director nomination. But it has five overall nominations across the craft categories, and has much more support than any of the other nominees, and is fantastic visual effects work. I think it takes the prize.

Best Animated Short
Will Win - Dear Basketball
Could Win - Negative Space or Garden Party

Best Documentary Short
Will Win - Edith + Eddie
Could Win - Knife Skills or Heroin(e)

Best Live Action Short
Will Win - DeKalb Elementary
Could Win  - The Silent Child or The Eleven O'Clock

2018 Motion Picture Sound Editors (MPSE) Awards

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing – Effects / Foley
Blade Runner 2049

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing – Dialogue / ADR
War for the Planet of the Apes

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing – Musical
The Greatest Showman

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing – Music Score
Dunkirk

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing – Foreign Language Feature
Loveless

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing – Feature Documentary
Jane

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing – Feature Animation
Coco

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing – Episodic Long Form – Effects / Foley
(TIE) Godless - “Homecoming” and Ozark - “The Toll”

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing – Episodic Long Form – Dialogue/ADR
Black Mirror - “USS Callister”

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing – Episodic Long Form – Music / Musical
The Get Down - “Only from Exile Can We Come Home”

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing – Episodic Short Form – Effects / Foley
Game of Thrones - “The Spoils of War”

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing – Episodic Short Form – Dialogue/ADR
Game of Thrones - “The Spoils of War”

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing – Episodic Short Form – Music / Musical
Stranger Things - “Chapter Eight: The Mind Flayer”

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing – Live Action Under 30:00
Superstore - “Tornado”

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing – Non-Theatrical Feature
In Search of Fellini

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing – Non-Theatrical Documentary
Becoming Bond

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing – Non-Theatrical Animation Long Form
Lego DC Super Hero Girls - “Brain Drain”

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing – Animation Short Form
Overwatch - “Honor and Glory”

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing – Computer Interactive Game Play
(TIE) Call of Duty: WWII and

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing – Computer Cinematic
Halo Wars 2

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing – Single Presentation
Oasis

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing – Student Film (Verna Fields Award)
Homegrown

FILMMAKER AWARD
Kathryn Bigelow

CAREER ACHIEVEMENT AWARD
John P. Fasal

Sunday, February 18, 2018

22nd Online Film and Television Critics Association Award Winners

Best Picture
Get Out

Best Animated Feature
Coco

Best Actor
Gary Oldman "Darkest Hour

Best Actress
Saoirse Ronan "Lady Bird"

Best Supporting Actor
Sam Rockwell "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"

Best Supporting Actress
Allison Janney "I, Tonya"

Best Youth Performance
Brooklynn Prince "The Florida Project"

Best Breakthrough Performance - Male
Timothee Chalamet "Call Me By Your Name"

Best Breakthrough Performance - Female
Tiffany Haddish "Girls Trip"

Best Voice-Over Performance
Will Arnett "The LEGO Batman Movie"

Best Ensemble
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Casting
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Director
Guillermo Del Toro "The Shape of Water"

Best Feature Debut
Jordan Peele "Get Out"

Best Original Screenplay
Jordan Peele "Get Out"

Best Adapted Screenplay
James Ivory "Call Me By Your Name"

Best Foreign Language Film
The Square

Best Documentary
Faces Places

Best Original Score
Alexandre Desplat "The Shape of Water"

Best Original Song
Coco - Remember Me

Best Adapted Song
The Shape of Water - You'll Never Know

Best Film Editing
Baby Driver

Best Cinematography
Roger Deakins "Blade Runner 2049"

Best Production Design
Blade Runner 2049

Best Costume Design
Phantom Thread

Best Makeup and Hair
Darkest Hour

Best Sound
Dunkirk

Best Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049

Best Stunt Coordination
Baby Driver

Best Titles Sequence
Baby Driver

Best Cinematic Moment
Get Out - The Sunken Place

Best Movie Trailer
Logan

Best Movie Poster
The Shape of Water

The 71st EE British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) Film Awards

I will update the winners as they come in this afternoon:

Best Film - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best British Film - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Director - Guillermo Del Toro "The Shape of Water"
Best Actor - Gary Oldman "Darkest Hour"
Best Actress - Frances McDormand "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
Best Supporting Actor - Sam Rockwell "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
Best Supporting Actress - Allison Janney "I, Tonya"
Best Adapted Screenplay - James Ivory "Call Me By Your Name"
Best Original Screenplay - Martin McDonagh "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
Best Animated Film - Coco
Best Documentary Feature - I Am Not Your Negro
Best Film Not in the English Language - The Handmaiden
Best British Debut - Rungano Nyoni and Emily Morgan "I Am Not a Witch"
EE Rising Star - Daniel Kaluuya
Best Cinematography - Roger Deakins "Blade Runner 2049"
Best Costume Design - Phantom Thread
Best Editing - Baby Driver
Best Makeup and Hair - Darkest Hour
Best Original Score - Alexandre Desplat "The Shape of Water"
Best Production Design - The Shape of Water
Best Sound - Dunkirk
Best Visual Effects - Blade Runner 2049
Best British Short - Cowboy Dave
Best British Animated Short - Poles Apart