The Oscar Narrative: Post Venice/Toronto/Telluride Nomination Predictions - Best Picture

Post Venice/Toronto/Telluride Nomination Predictions

Avatar: The Way of Water

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Everything Everywhere All At Once

The Fabelmans

TAR

Top Gun: Maverick

The Whale

Women Talking

Other Contenders - Decision to Leave,  The Woman King, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Living, Triangle of Sadness, Emancipation, Elvis, Empire of Light, The Inspection, She Said, Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths), Bones and All, Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio, Till, All Quiet on the Western Front, Aftersun, Armageddon Time, The Son, White Noise, A Man Called Otto, The Northman, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Nope, The Batman, I Wanna Dance With Somebody, Causeway, Spoiler Alert

Commentary - These are my last predictions until the critics awards start coming in, and they will help us shape where this race is heading. We know The Fabelmans, TAR, Women Talking, and The Banshees of Inisherin are strong out of the festivals, and there is no reason to believe that they will not continue to dominate. We have not seen Babylon, but early test screenings compared it to The Wolf of Wall Street, which is good news. I am keeping The Whale in for now, but it feels like it buzz is fading. The big guns like Black Panther (first reactions are raves), Avatar (I won't bet against James Cameron unless reviews say otherwise), Top Gun (can it keep holding on?) are still in the game, and honestly, the Oscars need them to stay strong. Finally, despite all odds, Everything Everywhere All at Once continues to be a huge player, and I think the critics will definitely solidify its status. Beyond those ten, there is Decision to Leave (it can win the directors over, but it needs more support to crack the top ten), The Woman King and Glass Onion (both bigger projects with great reviews), Triangle of Sadness (apparently has a lot of support), and Bardo (if it can overcome bad reviews). Empire of Light could rebound, Emancipation could be a late game-changer, Elvis is popular, The Inspection is gaining buzz, as is Till. Watch out for Pinocchio, Bone and Al, Armageddon Time, Aftersun, Nope, I Wanna Dance With Somebody, She Said, All Quiet on the Western Front, and Bones and All as well. 

The 38th Annual International Documentary Association (IDA) Awards Shortlists

Best Feature Documentary Shortlist

1341 Frames of Love and War (Israel, United States, United Kingdom | Yes Docu | Director/Producer: Ran Tal. | Producer: Sarig Peker)

After A Revolution (Libya, Italy, United Kingdom | EYESTEELFILM | Director/Producer: Giovanni Buccomino | Producers: Naziha Arebi, Alessandro Carroli)

All that Breathes (India, United States, United Kingdom | Sideshow and Submarine Deluxe, HBO Documentary Films | Director/Producer: Shaunak Sen | Producers: Aman Mann, Teddy Leifer)

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (United States | NEON, HBO | Director/Producer: Laura Poitras | Producers: Howard Gertler, John Lyons, Nan Goldin, Yoni Golijov)

Delikado (United States, Philippines, Australia | POV | Director: Karl Malakunas | Producers: Marty Syjuco, Michael Collins, Kara Magsanoc-Alikpala)

Etilaat Roz (Afghanistan | Director/Producer: Abbas Rezaie | Producer: Zaki Daryabi)

Fire of Love (Canada, Japan | National Geographic, NEON | Director/Producer: Sara Dosa | Producers: Shane Boris, Ina Fichman)

Geographies of Solitude (Canada | Films We Like | Director/Producer: Jacquelyn Mills | Producer: Rosalie Chicoine Perreault)

Hidden Letters (United States, Norway, China | Independent Lens | Directors: Violet Feng, Qing Zhao | Producer: Mette Cheng Munthe-Kaas)

A House Made of Splinters (Denmark, Finland, Ukraine | Director: Simon Lereng Wilmont | Producer: Monica Hellström)

Katrina Babies (United States | HBO Documentary Films, HBO Max | Director/Producer: Edward Buckles, Jr. | Producers: Audrey Rosenberg, Rebecca Teitel)

Lyra (United Kingdom | Cinephil | Director/Producer: Alison Millar | Producer: Jackie Doyle)

Mija (United States | Disney+ | Director: Isabel Castro | Producers: Tabitha Breese, Yesenia Tlahuel)

Moonage Daydream (United States | NEON, Universal | Director/Producer: Brett Morgen)

NAVALNY (United States, Germany, Russian Federation | Warner Bros Pictures, CNN Films, HBO 

Max | Director: Daniel Roher | Producers: Odessa Rae, Diane Becker, Melanie Miller, Shane Boris)

Nelly & Nadine (Sweden, Belgium, Norway | Wolfe Releasing | Director: Magnus Gertten | Producer: Ove Rishøj Jensen)

No Simple Way Home (United Kingdom, South Africa, South Sudan | Generation Africa - STEPS | Director: Akuol de Mabior | Producers: Sam Soko, Don Edkins, Tiny Mungwe)

The Pawnshop (Poland | Syndicado | Director/Producer: Lukasz Kowalski | Producer: Anna Mazerant)

Sansón and Me (Mexico, United States | Cinema Guild | Director: Rodrigo Reyes | Producer: Su Kim)

Singing on the Rooftops (Spain | Inicia Films | Director: Enric Ribes | Producer: Valérie Delpierre)

A Story of Bones (United Kingdom | Directors: Joseph Curran, Dominic Aubrey de Vere | Producer: Yvonne Isimeme Ibazebo)

The Territory (Brazil, United States | National Geographic | Director/Producer: Alex Pritz | Producers: Darren Aronofsky, Sigrid Dyekjær, Will N. Miller, Gabriel Uchida, Lizzie Gillett)

Three Minutes - A Lengthening (Netherlands | SuperLTD | Director: Bianca Stitger | Producers: Floor Onrust, Steve Mcqueen)

Waters of Pastaza (Portugal | Syndicado | Director/Producer: Inês T. Alves | Producer: Ico Costa)

Young Plato (Ireland, United Kingdom, Belgium | Autlook Film Sales | Directors: Neasa Ní Chianáin, Declan McGrath | Producers: David Rane, Hanne Phlypo, Céline Nusse, Jackie Doyle)

 

Best Short Documentary Shortlist

ᎤᏕᏲᏅ (What They’ve Been Taught) (United States | L.A. Times Short Docs, Nia Tero, Reciprocity Project | Director: Brit Hensel | Producers: Taylor Hensel, Adam Mazo, Kavita Pillay, Tracy Rector)

And Then They Burn the Sea (Qatar | Square Eyes | Director: Majid Al-Remaihi | Producer: Basel Owies)

Angola Do You Hear Us? Voices From A Plantation Prison (United States | MTV Documentary Films | Director: Cinque Northern | Producer: Catherine Gund)

Beirut Dreams in Color (Lebanon, United States, United Kingdom | The Guardian | Director: Michael Collins | Producers: Marty Syjuco, James Costa, Sarah Kaskas)

The Benevolents (Canada | The New York Times Op-Docs | Director/Producer: Sarah Baril Gaudet)

Bounty (United States | Directors: Ben Pender-Cudlip, Dawn Neptune Adams, Maulian Dana | Directors/Producers: Adam Mazo, Tracy Rector | Producer: Ben Pender-Cudlip)

Coming Home (United States | POV Shorts | Directors/Producers: Naim Naif, Margot Bowman | Producer: Meghan Doherty)

The Dreamlife of Georgie Stone (Australia, United States | Netflix | Directors/Producers: Maya Newell | Producers: Sophie Hyde, Matthew Bate, Lisa Sherrard)

The Elephant Whisperers (United States | Netflix | Director: Kartiki Gonsalves | Producers: Guneet Monga, Achin Jain)

Fatima In Kabul (Canada, Afghanistan | CBC - Canadian Broadcasting Corporation/CBC Distribution | Director/Producer: Brishkay Ahmed)

Haulout (United Kingdom | Rise And Shine World Sales, The New Yorker | Directors/Producers: Evgenia Arbugaeva, Maxim Arbugaev)

Heart Valley (United Kingdom | The New Yorker, Condé Nast | Director/Producer: Christian Cargill | Producers: Lily Wakeley, Kiran Sidhu)

Hold Your Breath: The Ice Dive (United Kingdom, United States | Netflix | Director: Ian Derry. Producers: Mike Brett, Jo-Jo Ellison, Steve Jamison)

Holding Moses (United States | The New Yorker | Directors/Producers: Rivkah Beth Medow, Jen Rainin)

Holy Cowboys (India, United States, United Kingdom | Director/Producer: Varun Chopra. Producer: Anna Hashmi)

I Am Trying to Remember (Czech Republic, Islamic Republic Of Iran | Europe Media Nest s.r.o., The New Yorker | Director: Pegah Ahangarani | Producer: Kaveh Farnam)

In Flow of Words (Netherlands | The New Yorker, Condé Nast | Director: Eliane Esther Bots | Producer: Manon Bovenkerk)

The Joys And Sorrows Of Young Yuguo (United States, United Kingdom | Netflix | Director: Ilinca Călugăreanu | Producer: Mara Adina)

Love, Barbara (United States | Director/Producer: Brydie O'Connor | Producer: Myriam Schroeter)

MINK! (United States | The New York Times Op-Docs | Director: Ben Proudfoot | Producer: Rachel Greenwald)

not even for a moment do things stand still (United States | The New York Times Op-Docs | Director/Producer: Jamie Meltzer | Producers: Annie Marr, Suzanne Brennan Firstenberg)

Nuisance Bear (Canada | The New Yorker | Director/Producer: Jack Weisman, Gabriela Osio Vanden)

The Silent Shore (France | The New Yorker, Condé Nast Entertainment | Directors/Producers: Nathalie Giraud, Timothée Corteggiani | Producer: Anne Bruneau)

Two-Spirit (Colombia | The New Yorker | Director: Mónica Taboada-Tapia | Producer: Beto Rosero)

32nd Annual Gotham Award Nominations

Best Feature

Aftersun

The Cathedral

Dos Estaciones

Everything Everywhere All at Once

TAR

Outstanding Lead Performance

Cate Blanchett “Tár”

Danielle Deadwyler “Till”

Dale Dickey “A Love Song”

Colin Farrell “After Yang”

Brendan Fraser “The Whale”

Paul Mescal “Aftersun”

Thandiwe Newton “God’s Country”

Aubrey Plaza “Emily the Criminal” 

Taylor Russell “Bones and All”

Michelle Yeoh “Everything Everywhere All At Once”

Outstanding Supporting Performance

Raúl Castillo “The Inspection”

Hong Chau “The Whale”

Brian Tyree Henry “Causeway”

Nina Hoss “TAR”

Noémie Merlant “TAR”

Ke Huy Quan “Everything Everywhere All at Once”

Mark Rylance “Bones and All”

Gabrielle Union “The Inspection”

Breakthrough Performer

Anna Cobb (“We’re All Going to the World’s Fair”)

Frankie Corio (“Aftersun”)

Anna Diop (“Nanny”)

Gracija Flipovic (“Murina”)

Kali Reis (“Catch the Fair One”)

Breakthrough Director

Charlotte Wells “Aftersun”

Owen Kline “Funny Pages”

Elegance Bratton “The Inspection”

Antoneta Alamat Kusijanovic “Murina”

Beth De Araújo “Soft & Quiet”

Jane Schoenbrun "We’re All Going to the World’s Fair”

Best Screenplay

Kogonada “After Yang”

James Gray “Armageddon Time”

Lena Dunham “Catherine Called Birdy”

Todd Field “Tár”

Sarah Polley “Women Talking”

Best Documentary Feature

“All That Breathes”

“All the Beauty and the Bloodshed”

“I Didn’t See You There”

“The Territory”

“What We Leave Behind”

Best International Feature

“Athena”

“The Banshees of Inisherin”

“Corsage”

“Decision to Leave”

“Happening”

“Saint Omer”

Breakthrough Television Program Under 40 Minutes

“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)

“As We See It” (Amazon Prime Video)

“Mo” (Netflix)

“Rap Sh!t” (HBO Max)

“Somebody, Somewhere” (HBO)

Breakthrough Television Program Over 40 Minutes

“Pachinko” (Apple+)

“Severance” (Apple+)

“Station Eleven” (HBO Max)

“This Is Going To Hurt” (AMC+)

“Yellowjackets” (Showtime)

Best Television Performer

Bilal Baig (“Sort Of”)

Ayo Edebiri (“The Bear”)

Janelle James (“Abbott Elementary”)

Minha Kim (“Pachinko”)

Matilda Lawler (“Station Eleven”)

Britt Lower (“Severance”)

Melanie Lynskey (“Yellowjackets”)

Zahn McClarnon (“Dark Winds”)

Sue Ann Pien (“As We See It”)

Ben Whishaw (“This Is Going To Hurt”)

Breakthrough Nonfiction Series

“The Andy Warhol Diaries”

“The Last Movie Stars”

“Mind Over Murder”

“The Rehearsal”

“We Need to Talk About Cosby”

The Oscar Narrative: Post Venice/Toronto/Telluride Nomination Predictions - Best Director

Post Venice/Toronto/Telluride Nomination Predictions

Damien Chazelle "Babylon"

Park Chan-wook "Decision to Leave"

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert "Everything Everywhere All At Once"

Steven Spielberg "The Fabelmans"

Sarah Polley "Women Talking"

Other Contenders - James Cameron "Avatar: The Way of Water", Todd Field "TAR", Martin McDonagh "The Banshees of Inisherin", Ruben Ostlund "Triangle of Sadness", Gina Prince-Blythewood "The Woman King", Ryan Coogler "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever", Darren Aronofsky "The Whale", Alejandro G. Inarritu "Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths", Edward Berger "All Quiet on the Western Front", Rian Johnson "Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery", Joseph Kosinski "Top Gun: Maverick", Maria Schrader "She Said", Sam Mendes "Empire of Light", Luca Guadagnino "Bones and All", Jordan Peele "Nope", Antoine Fuqua "Emancipation", Chinonye Chukwu "Till", Baz Luhrmann "Elvis", Kasi Lemons "I Wanna Dance With Somebody", Noah Baumbach "White Noise"

Commentary - A really tough race, one that will not be sorted out for awhile (maybe until nomination morning). We know that Steven Spielberg (who snuck back in last year at the last minute) will be a formidable contender here, with his highly personal The Fabelmans, which is also the current Best Picture frontrunner. Sarah Polley is looking to extend the winning streak for female directors to three, with her highly praised Women Talking. Babylon has not been seen yet, but the trailer looks to be a visual treat, and you cannot discount Damien Chazelle. The Daniels are still strong, and Everything Everywhere All at Once is a director's movie. Finally, I have moved Park Chan-wook in after his Decision to Leave has premiered to fantastic reviews. Foreign language films have always had a footing in directing, and recently that trend has picked up. There are a lot of potentials this year, but Chan-wook feels like his film may end up being the strongest. Those other potentials like Ruben Ostlund (for an English film), Inarritu (Bardo is a mixed bag), and Edward Berger (I think a bigger contender than previously thought). James Cameron is still lurking, and we are all dumb to sleep on one of his projects. Todd Field and Martin McDonagh are in a lot of folks top five, but neither have ever been nominated for director. Is this the year? Genuine action films from the likes of Gina Prince-Blythewood, Ryan Coogler, and Joseph Kosiniski are flashy potentials. I would also watch out for previous Oscar nominees/winners like Peele, Mendes, Aronofsky, Luhrmann, Baumbach, and Johnson, as well as Lemons, Schrader, and Chukwu. 

2022 Cinema Eye Honors: Broadcast Nominees

Broadcast Film
All In: The Fight for Democracy
Directed by Liz Garbus and Lisa Cortés | Amazon

David Byrne’s American Utopia
Directed by Spike Lee | HBO

Disclosure
Directed by Sam Feder | Netflix

In the Same Breath
Directed by Nanfu Wang | HBO

Tina
Directed by Dan Lindsay and T.J. Martin | HBO

Nonfiction Series
1971: The Year that Music Changed Everything
Directed by Asif Kapadia, Danielle Peck and James Rogan | Apple

City So Real
Directed by Steve James | National Geographic

Exterminate All the Brutes
Directed by Raoul Peck | HBO

The Lady and the Dale
Directed by Nick Cammilleri and Zackary Drucker | HBO

Last Chance U: Basketball
Directed by Greg Whiteley, Adam Leibowitz and Daniel George McDonald | Netflix

Philly D.A.
Directed by Yoni Brook, Ted Passon and Nicole Salazar | Independent Lens/PBS

Anthology Series
Earth at Night in Color
Alex Williamson, Executive Producer | Apple

Generation Hustle
Angie Day and Yon Motskin, Executive Producers | HBO Max

How to with John Wilson
Nathan Fielder, Michael Koman, Clark Reinking and John Wilson, Executive Producers | HBO

High on the Hog: How African American Cuisine Transformed America
Fabienne Toback, Karis Jagger and Roger Ross Williams, Executive Producers | Netflix

Pretend It’s a City
Martin Scorsese, Fran Lebowitz, David Tedeschi, Ted Griffin, Emma Tillinger Koskoff, Joshua Porter and Margaret Bodde, Executive Producers | Netflix

Taste the Nation with Padma Lakshmi
Padma Lakshmi, David Shadrack Smith and Sarina Roma, Executive Producers | Hulu

Broadcast Editing
Allen v Farrow
Mikaela Shwer, Parker Laramie and Sara Newens | HBO

City So Real
David E. Simpson and Steve James | National Geographic

David Byrne’s American Utopia
Adam Gough | HBO

Exterminate All the Brutes
Alexandra Strauss | HBO

How to with John Wilson
Adam Locke-Norton | HBO

Outstanding Broadcast Cinematography
100 Foot Wave
Nominees to be determined | HBO

City So Real
Jackson James and Steve James | National Geographic

David Byrne’s American Utopia
Ellen Kuras | HBO

Earth at Night in Color
Nominees to be determined | Apple

High on the Hog: How African American Cuisine Transformed America
Jerry Henry | Netflix

The Oscar Narrative: Post Venice/Toronto/Telluride Nomination Predictions - Best Actor

Post Venice/Toronto/Telluride Nomination Predictions

Austin Butler "Elvis"

Diego Calva "Babylon"

Colin Farrell "The Banshees of Inisherin"

Brendan Fraser "The Whale"

Bill Nighy "Living"

Other Contenders - Hugh Jackman "The Son", Will Smith "Emancipation", Jeremy Pope "The Inspection" Daniel Craig "Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery", Daniel Gimenez Cacho "Bardo", Park Hae-il "Decision to Leave", Michael Ward "Empire of Light", Song Kang-ho "Broker", Paul Mescal "Aftersun", Tom Hanks "A Man Called Otto", Tom Cruise "Top Gun: Maverick", Jonathan Majors "Devotion", Gabriel LaBelle "The Fabelmans", Harris Dickinson "Triangle of Sadness", Adam Driver "White Noise", Jim Parsons "Spoiler Alert", Daniel Kaluuya "Nope", Caleb Landry Jones "Nitram", Billy Eichner "Bros"

Commentary - After the super competitive Best Actress race, this one feels like an afterthought, as it is incredibly weak in comparison. The top three contenders for the prize, at this point, are all first time potentials. Brendan Fraser will probably overcome his fat suit controversy with his rave reviews and his press tour that is awe-inspiring. Austin Butler played Elvis well in a so-so movie, but he has the performance and the real-life inspiration to make the cut. Colin Farrell could be a sleeper. He has be flirting with Oscar recognition for years, and his film is a top contender across the board. The other two slots are incredibly fluid. I stuck with Bill Nighy. A veteran with a great role that could breakthrough, and Diego Calva in a potentially breakout role in the new Damien Chazelle film Babylon. Hugh Jackman could overcome mixed reviews for The Son, but the film is slipping. Will Smith probably would have been a contender, but will voters forgive so soon? Jeremy Pope is rising, Daniel Craig is overdue, and Michael Ward could benefit if Empire if Light gets a second chance (I think it could with industry voters). International contenders like Cacho, Hae-il and Kang-ho could benefit from a weaker race. Previous nominees like Adam Driver, Tom Hanks, Tom Cruise and Daniel Kaluuya could return. Finally, first time potentials like Parsons, LaBelle, Dickinson, Jones, Eichner, and Mescal are hoping to make their break into this race. 

The 7th Annual Critics Choice Documentary Award Nominations

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Aftershock (Hulu/Onyx Collective)

The Automat (A Slice of Pie Productions)

Descendant (Netflix)

Fire of Love (National Geographic Documentary Films/Neon)

Gabby Giffords Won’t Back Down (Briarcliff Entertainment)

Good Night Oppy (Amazon Studios)

The Janes (HBO)

Moonage Daydream (HBO/Neon)

Navalny (HBO/CNN/Warner Bros. Pictures)

Sidney (Apple TV+)

BEST DIRECTOR

Judd Apatow, Michael Bonfiglio – George Carlin’s American Dream (HBO)

Margaret Brown – Descendant (Netflix)

Sara Dosa – Fire of Love (National Geographic Documentary Films/Neon)

Reginald Hudlin – Sidney (Apple TV+)

Brett Morgen – Moonage Daydream (HBO/Neon)

Laura Poitras – All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (HBO/Neon)

Daniel Roher – Navalny (HBO/CNN/Warner Bros. Pictures)

Ryan White – Good Night Oppy (Amazon Studios)

BEST FIRST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Andrea Arnold – Cow (IFC Films)

Lisa Hurwitz – The Automat (A Slice of Pie Productions)

Jono McLeod – My Old School (Magnolia Pictures)

Amy Poehler – Lucy and Desi (Amazon Studios)

Alex Pritz – The Territory (National Geographic Documentary Films)

David Siev – Bad Axe (IFC Films)

Bianca Stigter – Three Minutes: A Lengthening (Super LTD)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Benjamin Bernhard, Riju Das – All That Breathes (HBO)

Magda Kowalczyk – Cow (IFC Films)

Lucas Tucknott – McEnroe (Showtime)

Gabriela Osio Vanden, Jack Weisman, Sam Holling – Nuisance Bear (The New Yorker)

The Cinematography Team – Our Great National Parks (Netflix)

Alex Pritz, Tangãi Uru-eu-wau-wau – The Territory (National Geographic Documentary Films)

BEST EDITING

Jabez Olssen – The Beatles: Get Back (Disney+)

Erin Casper, Jocelyne Chaput – Fire of Love (National Geographic Documentary Films/Neon) 

Joe Beshenkovsky – George Carlin’s American Dream (HBO)

Helen Kearns, Rejh Cabrera – Good Night Oppy (Amazon Studios)

Brett Morgen – Moonage Daydream (HBO/Neon)

Langdon Page, Maya Daisy Hawke – Navalny (HBO/CNN/Warner Bros. Pictures)

Katharina Wartena – Three Minutes: A Lengthening (Super LTD)

BEST SCORE

Hummie Mann – The Automat (A Slice of Pie Productions)

Nicolas Godin – Fire of Love (National Geographic Documentary Films/Neon)

Blake Neely – Good Night Oppy (Amazon Studios)

Max Avery Lichtenstein – The Janes (HBO)

David Schwartz – Lucy and Desi (Amazon Studios)

Marius de Vries, Matt Robertson – Navalny (HBO/CNN/Warner Bros. Pictures)

BEST NARRATION

Deep in the Heart: A Texas Wildlife Story (Fin and Fur Films)

   Written by Ben Masters

      Performed by Matthew McConaughey

Fire of Love (National Geographic Documentary Films/Neon)

   Written by Shane Boris, Erin Casper, Jocelyne Chaput, Sara Dosa

   Performed by Miranda July

Good Night Oppy (Amazon Studios)

   Written by Helen Kearns, Ryan White

   Performed by Angela Bassett

Our Great National Parks (Netflix)

   Performed by Barack Obama

Riotsville, U.S.A. (Magnolia Pictures)

   Written by Tobi Haslett

   Performed by Charlene Modeste

Three Minutes: A Lengthening (Super LTD)

   Written by Bianca Stigter

   Performed by Helena Bonham Carter

BEST ARCHIVAL DOCUMENTARY

The Beatles: Get Back (Disney+)

Fire of Love (National Geographic Documentary Films/Neon)

Moonage Daydream (HBO/Neon)

Nothing Compares (Showtime)

Riotsville, U.S.A. (Magnolia Pictures)

Three Minutes: A Lengthening (Super LTD)

BEST HISTORICAL DOCUMENTARY

The Automat (A Slice of Pie Productions)

Descendant (Netflix)

The Janes (HBO)

Lowndes County and the Road to Black Power (Peacock)

Still Working 9 to 5 (Mighty Fine Entertainment)

Three Minutes: A Lengthening (Super LTD)

The U.S. and the Holocaust (PBS)

BEST BIOGRAPHICAL DOCUMENTARY

George Carlin’s American Dream (HBO)

The Last Movie Stars (HBO Max)

Lucy and Desi (Amazon Studios)

The Rebellious Life of Mrs. Rosa Parks (Peacock)

Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams (Sony Pictures Classics)

Sidney (Apple TV+)

Sr. (Netflix)

BEST MUSIC DOCUMENTARY

The Beatles: Get Back (Disney+)

Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song (Sony Pictures Classics)

If These Walls Could Sing (Disney Original Documentary)

Louis Armstrong’s Black & Blues (Apple TV+)

Moonage Daydream (HBO/Neon)

Nothing Compares (Showtime)

The Return of Tanya Tucker – Featuring Brandi Carlile (Sony Pictures Classics)

BEST POLITICAL DOCUMENTARY

Aftershock (Hulu/Onyx Collective)

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (HBO/Neon)

Gabby Giffords Won’t Back Down (Briarcliff Entertainment)

The Janes (HBO)

Navalny (HBO/CNN/Warner Bros. Pictures)

Retrograde (National Geographic Documentary Films)

Freedom on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom (Winter on Fire Production)

BEST SCIENCE/NATURE DOCUMENTARY

All That Breathes (HBO)

Cow (IFC Films)

Fire of Love (National Geographic Documentary Films/Neon)

Good Night Oppy (Amazon Studios)

Nuisance Bear (The New Yorker)

Return to Space (Netflix)

The Territory (National Geographic Documentary Films)

BEST SPORTS DOCUMENTARY

Citizen Ashe (Magnolia/HBO)

Hockeyland (Greenwich Entertainment)

Kaepernick & America (Dark Star Pictures) 

McEnroe (Showtime)

The Redeem Team (Netflix)

Welcome to Wrexham (FX/Hulu)

BEST SHORT DOCUMENTARY

38 at the Garden (HBO)

Angola Do You Hear Us? Voices From a Plantation Prison (MTV Documentary Films)

The Flagmakers (National Geographic Documentary Films)

Four Seasons Total Documentary (MSNBC)

My Disability Roadmap (The New York Times Op Docs)

Nuisance Bear (The New Yorker)

Stranger at the Gate (The New Yorker)

BEST LIMITED DOCUMENTARY SERIES

The Beatles: Get Back (Disney+)

Hostages (HBO)

The Last Movie Stars (HBO Max) 

The Lincoln Project (Showtime)

Our Great National Parks (Netflix)

The U.S. and the Holocaust (PBS)

We Need to Talk About Cosby (Showtime)

BEST ONGOING DOCUMENTARY SERIES

30 for 30 (ESPN)

American Masters (PBS)

Cheer (Netflix)

The Circus (Showtime)

Unsolved Mysteries (Netflix)

Welcome to Wrexham (FX/Hulu)

2022 American Music Award Nominations

ARTIST OF THE YEAR

Adele

Bad Bunny

Beyoncé

Drake

Harry Styles

Taylor Swift

The Weeknd

NEW ARTIST OF THE YEAR

Dove Cameron

GAYLE

Latto

Måneskin

Steve Lacy

COLLABORATION OF THE YEAR

Carolina Gaitán, Mauro Castillo, Adassa, Rhenzy Feliz, Diane Guerrero, Stephanie Beatriz & Encanto Cast “We Don’t Talk About Bruno”

Elton John & Dua Lipa “Cold Heart – PNAU Remix”

Future ft. Drake & Tems “WAIT FOR U”

Lil Nas X ft. Jack Harlow “INDUSTRY BABY”

The Kid LAROI & Justin Bieber “STAY”

FAVORITE TOURING ARTIST

Bad Bunny

Coldplay

Ed Sheeran

Elton John

The Rolling Stones

FAVORITE MUSIC VIDEO

Adele “Easy On Me”

Bad Bunny ft. Chencho Corleone “Me Porto Bonito”

Harry Styles “As It Was”

Lil Nas X ft. Jack Harlow “INDUSTRY BABY”

Taylor Swift “All Too Well: The Short Film”

FAVORITE MALE POP ARTIST

Bad Bunny

Drake

Ed Sheeran

Harry Styles

The Weeknd

FAVORITE FEMALE POP ARTIST

Adele

Beyoncé

Doja Cat

Lizzo

Taylor Swift

 

FAVORITE POP DUO OR GROUP

BTS

Coldplay

Imagine Dragons

Måneskin

OneRepublic

FAVORITE POP ALBUM

Adele “30”

Bad Bunny “Un Verano Sin Ti”

Beyoncé “Renaissance”

Harry Styles “Harry’s House”

Taylor Swift “Red (Taylor’s Version)”

The Weeknd “Dawn FM”

FAVORITE POP SONG

Adele “Easy On Me”

Carolina Gaitán, Mauro Castillo, Adassa, Rhenzy Feliz, Diane Guerrero, Stephanie Beatriz & Encanto Cast “We Don’t Talk About Bruno”

Harry Styles “As It Was”

Lizzo “About Damn Time”

The Kid LAROI & Justin Bieber “STAY”

FAVORITE MALE COUNTRY ARTIST

Chris Stapleton

Cody Johnson

Luke Combs

Morgan Wallen

Walker Hayes

FAVORITE FEMALE COUNTRY ARTIST

Carrie Underwood

Lainey Wilson

Maren Morris

Miranda Lambert

Taylor Swift

FAVORITE COUNTRY DUO OR GROUP

Dan + Shay

Lady A

Old Dominion

Parmalee

Zac Brown Band

FAVORITE COUNTRY ALBUM

Carrie Underwood “Denim & Rhinestones”

Luke Combs “Growin’ Up”

Cody Johnson “Human: The Double Album”

Taylor Swift “Red (Taylor’s Version)”

Walker Hayes “Country Stuff: The Album”

FAVORITE COUNTRY SONG

Chris Stapleton “You Should Probably Leave”

Cody Johnson “’Til You Can’t”

Dustin Lynch ft. MacKenzie Porter “Thinking ‘Bout You”

Jordan Davis ft. Luke Bryan “Buy Dirt”

Morgan Wallen “Wasted on You”

FAVORITE MALE HIP-HOP ARTIST

Drake

Future

Kendrick Lamar

Lil Baby

Lil Durk

FAVORITE FEMALE HIP-HOP ARTIST

Cardi B

GloRilla

Latto

Megan Thee Stallion

Nicki Minaj

 

FAVORITE HIP-HOP ALBUM

Future “I NEVER LIKED YOU”

Gunna “DS4EVER”

Kendrick Lamar “Mr. Morale & The Big Steppers”

Lil Durk “7220”

Polo G “Hall of Fame 2.0”

FAVORITE HIP-HOP SONG

Future ft. Drake & Tems “WAIT FOR U”

Jack Harlow “First Class”

Kodak Black “Super Gremlin”

Latto “Big Energy”

Lil Nas X ft. Jack Harlow “INDUSTRY BABY”

FAVORITE MALE R&B ARTIST

Brent Faiyaz

Chris Brown

GIVĒON

Lucky Daye

The Weeknd

FAVORITE FEMALE R&B ARTIST

Beyoncé

Doja Cat

Muni Long

Summer Walker

SZA

FAVORITE R&B ALBUM

Beyoncé “Renaissance”

Drake “Honestly, Nevermind”

Silk Sonic (Bruno Mars & Anderson .Paak) “An Evening with Silk Sonic”

Summer Walker “Still Over It”

The Weeknd “Dawn FM”

FAVORITE R&B SONG

Beyoncé “BREAK MY SOUL”

Muni Long “Hrs And Hrs”

Silk Sonic (Bruno Mars & Anderson .Paak) “Smokin Out The Window”

SZA “I Hate U”

Wizkid ft. Tems “Essence”

FAVORITE MALE LATIN ARTIST

Bad Bunny

Farruko

J Balvin

Jhayco

Rauw Alejandro

FAVORITE FEMALE LATIN ARTIST

Anitta

Becky G

Kali Uchis

KAROL G

ROSALÍA

FAVORITE LATIN DUO OR GROUP

Banda MS de Sergio Lizárraga

Calibre 50

Eslabon Armado

Grupo Firme

Yahritza Y Su Esencia

 

FAVORITE LATIN ALBUM

Bad Bunny “Un Verano Sin Ti”

Farruko “La 167”

J Balvin “JOSE”

Rauw Alejandro “Vice Versa”

ROSALÍA “MOTOMAMI”

FAVORITE LATIN SONG

Bad Bunny ft. Chencho Corleone “Me Porto Bonito”

Becky G x KAROL G “MAMIII”

KAROL G “PROVENZA”

Rauw Alejandro “Todo de Ti”

Sebastián Yatra “Dos Oruguitas”

 

FAVORITE ROCK ARTIST

Imagine Dragons

Machine Gun Kelly

Måneskin

Red Hot Chili Peppers

The Lumineers

FAVORITE ROCK SONG

Foo Fighters “Love Dies Young”

Imagine Dragons x JID “Enemy”

Kate Bush “Running Up That Hill (A Deal With God)”

Måneskin “Beggin’”

Red Hot Chili Peppers “Black Summer”

FAVORITE ROCK ALBUM 

Coldplay “Music of the Spheres”

Ghost “Impera”

Imagine Dragons “Mercury – Act 1”

Machine Gun Kelly “mainstream sellout”

Red Hot Chili Peppers “Unlimited Love”

FAVORITE INSPIRATIONAL ARTIST

Anne Wilson

for KING & COUNTRY

Katy Nichole

Matthew West

Phil Wickham

FAVORITE GOSPEL ARTIST

CeCe Winans

DOE

Dewey Smith

Maverick City Music

Tamela Mann

FAVORITE DANCE/ELECTRONIC ARTIST

Diplo

Marshmello

Swedish House Mafia

The Chainsmokers

Tiësto

 FAVORITE SOUNDTRACK

“ELVIS”

“Encanto”

“Sing 2”

“Stranger Things: Soundtrack from the Netflix Series, Season 4”

“Top Gun: Maverick”

FAVORITE AFROBEATS ARTIST 

Burna Boy

CKay

Fireboy DML

Tems

Wizkid

FAVORITE K-POP ARTIST

BLACKPINK

BTS

SEVENTEEN

TOMORROW X TOGETHER

TWICE

The Oscar Narrative: Post Venice/Toronto/Telluride Nomination Predictions - Best Actress

Post Venice/Toronto/Telluride Nomination Predictions

Cate Blanchett "TAR"

Viola Davis "The Woman King"

Margot Robbie "Babylon"

Michelle Williams "The Fabelmans"

Michelle Yeoh "Everything Everywhere All At Once"

Other Contenders - Danielle Deadwyler "Till", Olivia Colman "Empire of Light", Naomi Ackie "I Wanna Dance With Somebody", Jessica Chastain "The Good Nurse", Jennifer Lawrence "Causeway", Emma Thompson "Good Luck to You, Leo Grande", Taylor Russell "Bones and All", Ana De Armas "Blonde", Tang Wei "Decision to Leave", Zar Amir Ebrahimi "Holy Spider", Carey Mulligan "She Said"

Commentary - This race is super competitive, and there could be a fierce battle to the final five. Cate Blanchett is probably in the lead for her third Oscar for TAR. But, I think that Michelle Williams joining this race instead of supporting has upended expectations. She has never won an Oscar, is in the Best Picture frontrunner, and may have the better narrative this season. In the last three slots, I am keeping Margot Robbie, whose role looks like scenery-chewing, Viola Davis, who is now an Oscar favorite and is fierce in The Woman King, and Michelle Yeoh, who could also have an interesting narrative this year, and could win. In the sixth slot, and I am thinking about making room for her, is Danielle Deadwyler, who is receiving raves for her performance in Till. The film needs to be seen, and the overall impression of the film was less enthusiastic than the notices she received, but the buzz is strong, and the story is powerful. Olivia Colman is still strong, because I think that Empire of Light might be a bigger hit with Oscar voters than with critics. Naomi Ackie looks like she embodies Whitney Houston, Taylor Russell is receiving great nods, Ana de Armas is turning heads, Tang Wei and Zar Amir Ebrahimi could have major breakthroughs, and previous nominees/winners Jessica Chastain, Jennifer Lawrence, Ema Thompson, and Carey Mulligan (might go supporting), are potentials to return. 

The Oscar Narrative: Post Venice/Toronto/Telluride Nomination Predictions - Best Supporting Actor

Post Venice/Toronto/Telluride Nomination Predictions

Brendan Gleeson "The Banshees of Inisherin"

Judd Hirsch "The Fabelmans"

Brad Pitt "Babylon"

Ke Huy Quan "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

Ben Whishaw "Women Talking"

Other Contenders - Barry Keoghan "The Banshees of Inisherin", Paul Dano "The Fabelmans", Jeremy Strong "Armageddon Time", Woody Harrelson "Triangle of Sadness", Anthony Hopkins "Armageddon Time", Eddie Redmayne "The Good Nurse", John Boyega "The Woman King", Toby Jones "Empire of Light", Edward Norton "Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story", Don Cheadle "White Noise", Tom Hanks "Elvis", Seth Rogen "The Fabelmans", Brian Tyree Henry "Causeway", Zen McGrath "The Son", Anthony Hopkins "The Son", Andre Braugher "She Said", Colin Farrell "Thirteen Lives", Colin Firth "Empire of Light", Michael Stuhlbarg "Bones & All", Pedro Pascal "The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent", Stanley Tucci "I Wanna Dance With Somebody", Tom Pelphrey "She Said", Tobey Maguire "Babylon", Steven Yeun "Nope"

Commentary - Brendan Gleeson and Judd Hirsch emerged from the fall festivals, as their films become big Best Picture contenders. The Oscar could come down to those beloved veterans. Brad Pitt, for now remains in the top five, but two things could risk his nod, the film and his personal press. Ben Whishaw is apparently a standout, and the only major male character in Women Talking. Ke Huy Quan remains strong as long as Everything Everywhere All at Once continues its buzz. Beyond those five, there are a lot of names. Jeremy Strong is getting a lot of attention for his role in Armageddon Time, Woody Harrelson is a scene-stealer in Triangle of Sadness, and Barry Keoghan or Paul Dano could join their co-stars. Previous nominees and winners like Eddie Redmayne, Edward Norton, Anthony Hopkins, Stanley Tucci, Steven Yeun, Colin Firth, Don Cheadle, and Tom Hanks all have potential. A mixture of veterans and newcomers like John Boyega, Brian Tyree Henry, Tobey Maguire, Pedro Pascal, Toby Jones, Seth Rogen, Zen McGrath, Andre Braugher, Colin Farrell, and Michael Stuhlbarg are all looking for their first nomination. 

The Oscar Narrative: Post Venice/Toronto/Telluride Nomination Predictions - Best Supporting Actress

Post Venice/Toronto/Telluride Nomination Predictions

Jessie Buckley "Women Talking"

Claire Foy "Women Talking"

Stephanie Hsu "Everybody Everywhere All At Once"

Janelle Monae "Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery"

Jean Smart "Babylon"

Other Contenders - Hong Chau "The Whale", Sadie Sink "The Whale", Jamie Lee Curtis "Everything Everywhere All at Once", Nina Hoss "TAR", Laura Dern "The Son", Zoe Kazaon "She Said", Jennifer Ehle "She Said", Jennifer Ehle "She Said", Patricia Clarkson "She Said", Kerry Condon "The Banshees of Inisherin", Angela Bassett "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever", Thuso Mbedu "The Woman King", Lashana Lynch "The Woman King", Judith Ivey "Women Talking", Sheila McCarthy "Women Talking", Frances McDormand "Women Talking", Dolly De Leon "Triangle of Sadness", Kate Winslet "Avatar: The Way of Water", Signourey Weaver "Avatar: The Way of Water", Lupita Nyong'o "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever", Letitia Wright "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever", Danai Gurira "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever", Anne Hathaway "Armageddon Time", Whoopi Goldberg "Till", Vanessa Kirby "The Son", Keke Palmer "Nope", Julia Butters "The Fabelmans"

Commentary - Michelle Williams moving to lead might be brilliant or a mistake, because I had her winning this supporting Oscar. But this leaves a wide-open race with a lot of fantastic contenders. Women Talking has an incredible cast, but right now it looks like Claire Foy and Jessie Buckley are rising to the top of list. Can both make it in? We will have to see, but both are awards magnets with great reviews in a top Best Picture contender. Everything Everywhere All at Once still makes me hesitant, but if voters embrace it, then watch out for Stephanie Hsu and Jamie Lee Curtis. Right now I have Hsu in, but I am already starting to see the buzz for Jamie Lee Curtis rise, a legend who has yet to earn an Oscar nomination. Babylon looks crazy, but it could be a chance for awards magnet Jean Smart breaking into the Oscar race. Finally,  I moved in Janelle Monae. Glass Onion has a chance to do even better than Knives Out, and all of the reviews talk about Monae's amazing performance. Beyond those five though, you have Jamie Lee Curtis (as previously mentioned), Chau and Sink from The Whale, Nina Hoss who is climbing the odds for TAR, the She Said women, The Women King, Women Walking, Black Panther, and Avatar casts and Kerry Condon's talked about work in The Banshees of Inisherin. Recent nominees and winners like Anne Hathaway, Whoopi Goldberg (okay not recent, but you get the point), Vanessa Kirby, and Laura Dern should not be discounted, neither should Dolly De Leon, Keke Palmer, and Julia Butters. 

The Oscar Narrative: Post Venice/Toronto/Telluride Nomination Predictions - Best Animated Feature

Post Venice/Toronto/Telluride Nomination Predictions

Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio

Lightyear

Strange World

Turning Red

Wendell & Wild

Other Contenders - Marcel The Shell With Shoes On, Inu-Oh, The Bob's Burgers Movie, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, The Sea Beast, Minions: The Rise of Gru, My Father's Dragon, Luck, Scrooge: A Christmas Carol, Drifting Home, The Bad Guys

Commentary - Do I really think Lightyear will make the cut? Not really, but you never know this early in the season, and you can never discount the power of Pixar, even its lesser products. The other four, at least at this stage seem strong. Both Turning Red and Wendell & Wild got strong critical reception, and have big names backing them. Guillermo Del Toro can never be discounted, and his Pinocchio is sure to be one to watch. Finally, I think that the upcoming Disney Strange World could the late-entry that Encanto was on its way to Oscar gold. Marcel the Shell With Shoes On is fantastic, and I hope enough people see it. I personally loved The Bob's Burgers Movie, but you have to be a fan of that show. Minions and Puss in Boots have new sequels, Inu-Oh is GKIDs, and Luck is John Lasseter's return. Netflix has Scrooge, The Sea Beast, and Drifting Home, and have become great campaigners recently. Finally, The Bad Guys was an early success this year.