Emmy Predictions: Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Will Win - Laura Linney "The Big C"
Should Win - Amy Poehler "Parks & Recreation"
Could Win - Poehler or Melissa McCarthy "Mike & Molly"

Commentary - For me, this race comes down to two, with a few outside possibilities. Edie Falco managed to win last year despite not being funny at all (a great performance, just not a comedic performance), but Nurse Jackie was not as good this season, and managed no other nods. Tina Fey returns again for 30 Rock, but there have been very few repeats in this category (none in the last decade), and 30 Rock seems to have fallen out of the discussion. Newcomers Martha Plimpton and Melissa McCarthy benefit from hilarious episodes, and from hot new series. But I don't know if they have the pedigree yet to win the Emmy, plus they face competition from two bigger contenders. If I had a vote, it would go to Amy Poehler for her Flu Season epsiode of Parks and Rec, the funniest performance of the bunch. But Laura Linney has the snob factor, she has never lost an Emmy, and her episode for the Pilot is big bold, hilarious at moments and sober at other ones showing off Linney's incredible range. While I think Poehler has a shot, she will most likely play second fiddle to Linney, who literally carries the entire series on her back (whereas Poehler benefits from a great ensemble cast).