Emmy Predictions: TV Movie/Miniseries

Will Win - Mildred Pierce
Should Win - Too Big to Fail, or Downton Abbey
Could Win - Downton Abbey, Cinema Verite

Commentary - A week ago, this category seemed like a slam dunk. But after the shakeup at the Creative Arts Emmys, I am now starting to ponder whether an upset is waiting in the wings. Pillars of the Earth probably shouldn't have been nominated, and without any other major nominations  I am happy to say that it won't. While The Kennedy's got some surprise technical wins (and nominations in big categories), it also doesn't look like it is going to win either. I know some people thought the History Channel's liberal bias is why they chose not to air it, but personally I think it was because it simply wasn't that good as a program, whether you love or hate the family. Too Big to Fail was a nice, politically charged drama with great performances and a sharp script, but I don't think it made a big enough mark to swing enough voters to its side. Cinema Verite, like Too Big to Fail, was lifted by its cast, and while the HBO machine is behind it, I think they are gunning for a different program, meaning I don't think there is enough buzz behind it to pull off an upset. However, there is tons of buzz behind the PBS miniseries (now a series, with a second season), Downton Abbey, and after it pulled some technical upsets, I am starting to think that it could win the top prize. However, despite my inclinatiosn of an upset, I am sticking with my guns and going with the HBO juggernaut Mildred Pierce. It is big, bold, well-reviewed, and has Kate Winslet, Todd Haynes, and a host of other talent people with their names beside it. Plus, its abundance of acting, directing, and writing nods leads me to believe that the biggest branches love it, and will give it the Emmy.