Monday, September 26, 2011

State of the Race: September Predictions - Best Actress

My Predictions
Glenn Close "Albert Nobbs"
Viola Davis "The Help"
Meryl Streep "The Iron Lady"
Tilda Swinton "We Need to Talk About Kevin"
Charlize Theron "Young Adult"

Other Contenders - Michelle Williams "My Week with Marilyn", Rooney Mara "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo", Elizabeth Olsen "Martha Marcy May Marlene", Jodie Foster "Carnage", Felicity Jones "Like Crazy", Michelle Yeoh "The Lady", Kirsten Dunst "Melancholia", Jane Fonda "Peace, Love & Misunderstanding", Rachel Weisz "The Whistleblower", Kristen Wiig "Bridesmaids", Emma Stone "The Help", Emily Watson "Oranges and Sunshine". Charlotte Rampling "The Eye of the Storm"

Commentary - This race has about ten solid contenders, some seen, others not, and then it seems to drop off a cliff. Currently, there are some buzzed performances outside of the top five. For example, we know Olsen is good, and Mara could be good, but both are young and need some precursor support before I jump on their bandwagon. Michelle Williams is currently 6th in my book, but playing Marilyn Monroe is hard to do, although my guess is that by the end of the season, she will be in the top five. So now onto my actual predictions. There are three staples that keep appearing over and over, Viola Davis, Glenn Close, and Meryl Streep. Davis we know is phenomenal in a well-liked movie, Albert Nobbs is getting mixed reviews, but Close almost always gets praised, and while there is a lot of concern for The Iron Lady, Meryl Streep playing Margaret Thatcher is going to be hard to pass up. In the last two slots I am going with two Academy Award winners in buzzed projects. Tilda Swinton is already getting rave reviews for We Need to Talk About Kevin, but the film is dark and may find it hard to break into the major awards. Finally, the last two Jason Reitman films have seen their leads nominated (Ellen Page and George Clooney), and Charlize Theron is usually pretty damn good. If Young Adult is as good as his previous outings, I think she will be a tough contender.

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