Thursday, February 28, 2013

Cannes, Telluride, and Sundance: Festival News Bits

A lot of information came out today about three different film festivals along the circuit this year.

  • First, the Cannes Film Festival has announced that this year's President for its jury which votes on the awards including the Palme D'Or. He started out at Cannes in 1974 with his film The Sugarland Express. The festival will be held May 15 till May 25, and is sure to be a lauching pad for many Oscar contenders this year.
  • The second has less to do the festival, and more to do with the films that premiered at it. One of the biggest films to come out of The Sundance Film Festival was The Spectacular Now featuring apparently stunning performances from its leads Shailene Woodley and Miles Teller has had its date set for August 2nd. This could be a smart move as August tends to be dead at the box office, so if it does well on the limited release circuit it could carry a lot of press, and do so without as much competition.
  • One of the most frequent filmmakers to appear at the Telluride Film Festival over its 40 years is Werner Herzog. This year, in honor of his many years of participation, they are naming a new theatre after him, which will hold a total of 650 viewers. This year, the festival, will be held from August 29th to September 2nd. Last year, the film Argo surprisingly premiered before its Toronto debut, and launched itself all the way to a Best Picture Oscar.

Best of the Emmy Awards: Contenders - Best Individual Performance in a Variety/Musical Program

This category was discontinued, but I always thought it had some fun winners, so I'm adding it to the list:

Harvey Korman “The Carol Burnett Show”
Brenda Vaccaro “The Shape of Things”
Jack Albertson “Cher
Cloris Leachman “Cher
Chevy Chase “Saturday Night Live”
Vicki Lawrence “The Carol Burnett Show”
Tim Conway “The Carol Burnett Show”
Gilda Radner “Saturday Night Live”
Leontyne Price “Live From Lincoln Center: Leontyne Price, Zubin Mehta and the New   York Philharmonic”
Cloris Leachman “Screen Actors Guild 50th Anniversary Celebration”
George Hearn “Sweeney Todd”
Whitney Houston “The 28th Annual Grammy Awards”
Robin Williams “Carol and Carl and Whoopi and Robin”
Robin Williams “ABC Presents A Royal Gala”
Linda Ronstadt “Canciones de Mi Padre”
Tracey Ullman “The Tracey Ullman Show”
Billy Crystal “The 63rd Annual Academy Awards”
Bette Midler “The Tonight Show Starring Johnny Carson”
Dana Carvey “Saturday Night Live”
Tracey Ullman “Tracy Ullman Takes On New York
Barbra Streisand “Barbra Streisand The Concert”
Tony Bennett “Live By Request”
Bette Midler “Diva Las Vegas
Billy Crystal “The 70th Annual Academy Awards”
John Leguizamo “Freak”
Eddie Izzard “Dress to Kill”
Barbra Streisand “Barbra Streisand, Timeless”
Sting “A&E in Concert”
Wayne Brady “Whose Line is It Anyway?”
Elaine Stritch “Elaine Stritch at Liberty
Hugh Jackman “The 58th Annual Tony Awards”
Barry Manilow “Music and Passion”
Tony Bennett “Tony Bennett: An American Classic”
Don Rickles “Mr. Warmth – The Don Rickles Project”

Best of the Emmy Awards: Contenders - Best Voiceover Performance

Nancy Cartwright “The Simpsons”
Dan Castellaneta “The Simpsons”
Julie Kavner “The Simpsons”
Jackie Mason “The Simpsons”
Yeardley Smith “The Simpsons”
Marcia Wallace “The Simpsons”
Christopher Plummer “Madeline”
Jonathan Katz “Dr. Katz, Professional Therapist”
Jeremy Irons “The Great War and the Shaping of the 20th Century: War Without End”
Rick Mayall “The Willows in Winter”
Hank Azaria “The Simpsons”
Ja’net Dubois “The PJ’s”
Seth MacFarlane “Family Guy”
Julie Harris “Not for Ourselves Alone: The Story of Elizabeth Cady Stanton and Susan B. Anthony”
Peter Macon “Animated Tales of the World”
Pamela Segall “King of the Hill”
Keith David “Unforgivable Blackness: The Rise and Fall of Jack Johnson”
Kelsey Grammer “The Simpsons”
Keith David “The War: A Necessary War”
Anne Hathaway “The Simpsons”
Maurice LaMarche “Futurama”

Wednesday, February 27, 2013

Best of the Emmy Awards: Contenders - Best Animated Program

This list includes Long form, short form, and all previous and current Animated Programs:

Halloween is Grinch Night
The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
Carlton is Your Doorman
Life is a Circus, Charlie Brown
The Grinch Grinches the Cat in the Hat
Ziggy’s Gift
Garfield on the Town
Garfield’s Halloween Adventure
A Claymation Christmas Celebration
Garfield’s Babes and Bullets
Ducktales: Super DuckTales
The Simpsons
Tale Spin: Plunder & Lightning
A Claymation Easter
Batman: The Animated Series
The Roman City
Pinky and the Brain
King of the Hill
Todd McFarlane’s Spawn
Walking With Dinosaurs
Samurai Jack
Allosaurus: A Walking With Dinosaurs Special
Chased By Dinosaurs
Star Wars: Clone Wars
Star Wars: Clone Wars Vol. 2
Before the Dinosaurs
South Park
Camp Lazlo: Where’s Lazlo?
South Park: Imagination Land
Foster’s Home for Imaginary Friends: Destination Imagination
Prep and Landing
The Penguins of Madagascar
Camp Lazlo: Lazlo’s First Crush
Robot Chicken: “Full Assed Christmas Special”
Prep and Landing: Operation: Secret Santa
Regular Show: Eggscelent

Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Best of the Emmy Awards: Introduction and Rules

Last year I tackled my favorite Oscar winners of all time. This year, I will take the same stab at my favorite Emmy winners of all time. The Best of the Emmy Awards will begin tommorrow and will feature three disctinct phases. The first phase will be presenting the contenders for each of the categories. Phase 2 will involve whittling down to finalists. Phase 2 will be the final nominations, ranging from 10-15 nominees, which will be adjusted depending on the category. The final phase will be the announcement of the winners. Here are the ground rules:

1) All the contenders must be Emmy winners
2) It will feature current categories, however individuals from older categories that fit the newer descriptions will be added. I will also do the Individual Achievement in a Variety Series/Special, which ended in 2008. Those Guest performers that won for SNL after 2008 will remain in their guest categories.
3) I will not be doing most of the Creative Arts Emmys, because there are way too many categories, and they used to be so many different names. I will however do Animated Series (combining all the various versions), as well as Best Voiceover Performance.
4) This is the most important rule: These are my personal preferences, and my favorites, so feel free to disagree in the comments section!

New Projects for Spring/Summer 2013

In this lull period between Oscar coverage, and the Spring/Summer coverage of the Tony's and the Emmys, I have taken to fun projects that celebrate the awards we all enjoy. Last year, the focus was on film with Best of the Academy Awards and the Top 100 Films of the 1990's. This year, I will be turning my attention more towards television. Here are some of the ideas and projects on deck:

1) Best of the Emmy Awards (which could start either tonight or tomorrow)
2) Top 100 Television Shows Since 2000
3) Continued Reviews and some Retro Reviews
4) Tony and Emmy coverage
5) Cannes and Summer Blockbuster Coverage
5) The 5th Annual Halfway Awards (in July)
6) Early predictions of 2014 Oscars.

As you can see, there is never a dull moment here at The Awards Psychic. So stick around, and as I say here often, we'll just have to wait and see!

Monday, February 25, 2013

The Oscar Narrative: The End

The Awards
Wow, I can't believe another year has come and gone. This year in terms of predicting the awards, it was a Catch-22. I did surprisingly well with 20 out of 24, but in some of those cases, they were simply lucky, and even last minute guesses. A lot of other pundits ended up poorly in like the 13 to 14 range. I am not criticizing them at all. This was a crazy year, and it was just as great of a possibility that I ended up on the other side of the coin. There wasn't one winner that I was really mad about. Sure, I would have loved to see an Emmanuelle Riva win, but I love Lawrence as well, it was just a tough category to pick from. I am still appauled that Roger Deakins and Greg P. Russell are Oscar-less, but I cannot argue with the winners of Life of Pi or Les Mis, respectively. Once again, tough categories, with lots a great choices. I was shocked by the tie in Sound Editing, it was a cool moment. But I wasn't surprised at the two winners. One thing that I really enjoyed is that every film got their due. All of the Best Picture nominees, with the exception of Beasts of the Southern Wild received at least one award (Argo - 3, Lincoln - 2, Django - 2, Life of Pi - 4, Les Mis - 3, SLP - 1, ZDT - 1), and the technical achievements of Anna Karenina and Skyfall also received awards, both of which were deserved. 2012 was an excellent year in movies, and I was glad to see so many wonderful films get some sort of recognition for their efforts. As I am writing this article, I am finding it hard to really put thoughts on the page. Last year, I could have rambled on for hours about the winners, but this year, I just seem to be stuck. I was fully expecting tons of surprises, and yet honestly there weren't that many for me. I fully expected to be horrified by a winner or overjoyous, and yet that didn't happen either. The Argo win I will talk a little more about in the final section, but really at the end of the day it was so inevitable. It seems that this year, the race leading up the Oscars was the real story, and somehow when the winners were finally announced it felt kind of anti-climatic. For the record, my favorite wins of the night were Hathaway, Day-Lewis, Lee, Lincoln for PD, Adele, and Tarantino.

The Ceremony
Okay, so here's my thing. After Billy Crystal did his same old thing last year (which didn't both me, but whatever), they wanted some controversy, they wanted some new face, and they went with Seth MacFarlane. I think his opening stuff was really hit or miss. Some of his jokes just didn't land, and the Shatner bit started out funny, but about 2 go-rounds into it, I was already tired of it. What most people seem to hate is that they were somehow offended by Seth. Are you freaking kidding me? Of course he was offensive, and yes, there were some jokes that I found to be appauling, like the Adele fat joke, the Wallis and Dujardin disses, and the Lincoln inside his head bit. But was I shocked that he said those things? Hell. No. If you have ever watched Family Guy, you know that no one is safe, heck he managed to insult himself at one point. If you didn't want controversial remarks and mean-spirited jokes, you shouldn't have hired him in the first place. My real problem with the ceremony had nothing to do with MacFarlane (who was still better than James Franco, and actually did a pretty good job), but more to do with the producers incredible self-indulgence. First, Chicago may have had a lot to do with the rebirth of movie musicals, and yes, I enjoyed the film. But damn, that was 10 years ago, and you are still holding on to your own bitterness about being left off the Oscar ballot. It was ridiculous, useless, and about half way through her performance I realized that Catherine Zeta-Jones was lip-syncing, which should just be an embarrasment to all those involved. Then they promised a tribute to Bond, and really it was a nice montage. Shirley Bassey was incredible, but when they separated Adele's performance, it lost a lot of continunity. Plus, they squeezed together all of these categories to make room for their self-indulgence, and personally it was a huge insult. I hope they are never invited back again.

The Season
Like I said before, 2012 was an incredible year for movies, and The Academy recognized that fact by spreading the love around to all deserving winners. A nice change from most years. The race itself was one of the most exciting in years, with so many films and performances as potential winners, and so many interesting twists and turns. But, in the end, something seemed flat. Maybe it was that I wasn't ever really surprised, or maybe it was that after all of that, Argo's win seemed boring and inevitable. I like Argo, it is a good film. But in this year of 2012 with films like Lincoln, and others, Argo just doesn't seem like the right choice. Maybe history will look kindly on it, and unless the DGA changes its dates to match the Academy's again (which will probably happen), Argo may have set an interesting precedent, throwing out the old addage that you must have Director nod. Either way, I think that we will look back on 2012 as one of those strange and anomaly Oscar years. Most importantly, we will look back at these incredible films, all of them, and their impact on the canon of film history. Before I sign off on this Oscar season, I would like to take this moment to thank you. By you, of course I am talking to the readers and awards lovers who share my enthusiasm and passion. About 4 1/2 years ago (5 as of July), I started The Awards Psychic as a place of expression. I never thought that its viewership would grow, and honestly, I didn't think it would last. But it has, and that is accredited solely to you. This has been another great Oscar season, and I think we have a great Emmy and Tony Season to look forward to this Spring/Fall. So I hope you keep reading, commenting, voting in polls, because as long as you are willing to stick with me, I am willing to work hard and continue to pursue my passions and dreams. Thanks for everything.

Sunday, February 24, 2013

The 85th Annual Academy Award Winners

I will be updating the winners live!:

Best Picture - Argo
Best Actor - Daniel Day-Lewis "Lincoln"
Best Actress - Jennifer Lawrence "Silver Linings Playbook"
Best Director - Ang Lee "Life of Pi"
Best Supporting Actress - Anne Hathaway "Les Miserables"
Best Supporting Actor - Christoph Waltz "Django Unchained"
Best Adapted Screenplay - Chris Terrio "Argo"
Best Original Screenplay - Quentin Tarantino "Django Unchained"
Best Foreign Language Film - Amour
Best Animated Feature - Brave
Best Documentary Feature - Searching for Sugar Man
Best Original Score - Mychael Danna "Life of Pi"
Best Original Song - Adele and Paul Epworth Skyfall from "Skyfall"
Best Film Editing - Argo
Best Cinematography - Claudio Miranda "Life of Pi"
Best Costume Design - Jacqueline Durran "Anna Karenina"
Best Makeup and Hairstyling - Les Miserables
Best Production Design - Lincoln
Best Sound Mixing  - Les Miserables
Best Sound Editing - (A TIE!!!) Zero Dark Thirty and Skyfall!!!
Best Visual Effects - Life of Pi
Best Live Action Short - Curfew
Best Animated Short - Paperman
Best Documentary Short -  Inocente

The Oscar Narrative: Final Prediction List

So there is no going back now, it is set in stone. I am fully prepared to be incredibly wrong, and taking a look at other predictions across the Oscar blogosphere, I am not the only one. This has been a crazy year for Oscar, and I expect tonight's ceremony and its winners to continue the trend. I will be live blogging/tweeting the winners/ceremony tonight and tomorrow afternoon sometime, I will give my final thoughts on the winners, the ceremony, and the season as a whole. Until them, take a final look below, finalize your own predictions, and get ready for a wonderful night.

Best Picture - Argo
Best Director - Ang Lee "Life of Pi"
Best Actor - Daniel Day-Lewis "Lincoln"
Best Actress - Jennifer Lawrence "Silver Linings Playbook"
Best Supporting Actor - Christoph Waltz "Django Unchained"
Best Supporting Actress - Anne Hathaway "Les Miserables"
Best Adapted Screenplay - Chris Terrio "Argo"
Best Original Screenplay - Quentin Tarantino "Django Unchained"
Best Animated Feature - Brave
Best Documentary Feature - Searching for Sugar Man
Best Foreign Language Film - Amour
Best Production Design - Life of Pi
Best Cinematography - Life of Pi
Best Costume Design - Anna Karenina
Best Film Editing - Argo
Best Makeup and Hair - The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Best Original Score - Life of Pi
Best Original Song- Skyfall from Skyfall
Best Sound Editing -Life of Pi
Best Sound Mixing - Les Miserables
Best Visual Effects - Life of Pi
Best Animated Short - Paperman
Best Documentary Short - Open Heart 
Best Live Action Short - Curfew

The 33rd Annual Golden Raspberry Razzie Award Winners (Losers)

Now, I know that some will complain that this Twilight was actually one of the better ones, but I am kind of with the Razzie voters. It was the last time they could dishonor this horrific film saga, and it was more of a nod to the whole treacherous five years we had to live with it, than this particular film itself. The winners...I mean losers, are below.


"Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2"

Adam Sandler, "That's My Boy"

Kristen Stewart, "Snow White and the Huntsman" and "Twlight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2"

Taylor Lautner, "Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2"

Rihanna, "Battleship"

"Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2"

Bill Condon, "Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2"

"Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2"

Mackenzie Foy & Taylor Lautner, "Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2"

"That's My Boy

Saturday, February 23, 2013

The Oscar Narrative: My Oscar Wish List

After finally seeing Amour, I am now ready to pretend that I am an Academy voter. If I had a ballot this is how I would vote.

Best Picture
1. Lincoln
2. Django Unchained
3. Beasts of the Southern Wild
4. Argo
5. Zero Dark Thirty
6. Amour
7. Silver Linings Playbook
8. Les Miserables
9. Life of Pi

Best Director - Steven Spielberg "Lincoln"
Best Actor - Daniel Day-Lewis "Lincoln"
Best Actress - Emmanuelle Riva "Amour"
Best Supporting Actor - Tommy Lee Jones "Lincoln"
Best Supporting Actress - Anne Hathaway "Les Miserables"
Best Adapted Screenplay - Tony Kushner "Lincoln"
Best Original Screenplay - Quentin Tarantino "Django Unchained"
Best Animated Feature - Wreck-It Ralph
Best Documentary Feature - 5 Broken Cameras
Best Foreign Language Film - Amour
Best Production Design - Lincoln
Best Cinematography - Roger Deakins "Skyfall"
Best Costume Design - Anna Karenina
Best Film Editing - Zero Dark Thirty
Best Makeup and Hair - Les Miserables
Best Original Score - John Williams "Lincoln"
Best Original Song- Skyfall from Skyfall
Best Sound Editing - Skyfall
Best Sound Mixing - Skyfall
Best Visual Effects - Life of Pi
Best Animated Short - Adam and Dog
Best Documentary Short - Monday's at Racine's
Best Live Action Short - Curfew

The Oscar Narrative: Final Predictions - Best Picture

Will Win - Argo

Could Win - Lincoln, Life of Pi, or Silver Linings Playbook

Should Win - Lincoln

Commentary - I have this recurring dream that on Monday morning we are all going to wake up, and everything we thought we knew was right. That it didn't matter how many precursors Argo won, without that directing nomination something like Lincoln or Silver Linings, or Life of Pi won instead. Alas, like Anne Hathaway, I have simply dreamed a dream. Argo has swept through all the major precursors and seemed to only be galvanized by its director snub. While some races maintain their mystery, this one was solved long ago. And, I will still be sticking to my guns at the end of the day. Argo is fun, and well-done. But Lincoln is an American masterpiece, and the best film of the year.

2013 Independent Spirit Award Winners

Best Film
Silver Linings Playbook

Best Director
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

Best Cinematography
Ben Richardson, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Best Male Lead
John Hawkes, The Sessions

Best Female Lead
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Cassavetes Award
Middle of Nowhere

Best Screenplay
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

Best International Film

Best Supporting Actress
Helen Hunt, The Sessions

Best Supporting Actor
Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike

Best First Feature
Stephen Chbosky, The Perks of Being a Wallflower

First Screenplay
Derek Connolly, Safety Not Guaranteed

Best Documentary
The Invisible War

The Oscar Narrative: Final Predictions - Best Director

Will Win - Ang Lee "Life of Pi"

Could Win - Steven Spielberg "Lincoln" or David O. Russell "Silver Linings Playbook"

Should Win - Steven Spielberg "Lincoln"

Commentary - Once again, a tough category to predict. Spielberg is seen by many as the clear number two. And while I hope he wins, I get the feeling that the buzz for Lincoln, with the exception of Day-Lewis, is just dead. David O. Russell is really the dark horse, and if he wins, we will see  just how powerful Harvey is in Hollywood (as if we didn't know all ready). But my guess is that all of those potential technical wins for Life of Pi will lead the well-respected and well-liked Ang Lee to his second Oscar victory. He is the star of his movie, which received 11 nominations, and while it is close, I expected him to squeak out victory.

The Oscar Narrative: Final Predictions - Best Actress

Will Win - Jennifer Lawrence "Silver Linings Playbook"

Could Win - Emmanuelle Riva "Amour" or Jessica Chastain "Zero Dark Thirty"

Should Win - Emmanuelle Riva "Amour"

Commentary - Another tough race to call, this time between two really strong contenders, and a dark horse that cannot be forgotten. First, let's start with the dark horse: Jessica Chastain. I know that Zero Dark Thirty has take a hit, but people still have a lot of respect for her and the role, and word is that she is getting a lot of votes (as is Naomi Watts apparently). I think losing the BAFTA hurt, but I still think that she is one to watch for. So now the race really begins. The 86 year old versus the 22 year old, the art house versus the populist, the BAFTA vs. the SAG. I think that Riva can win, but I think that many bloggers have hyped her up maybe more than members of the Academy have. They clearly like Amour, but they love SLP a lot more, and I think that when the whole Academy votes, that the overwhelming popularity of the film, along with the hardcore campaigning by her, and by Harvey, will be enough to overcome the powerful performance of Riva, although in some cases I hope I am wrong. I finally saw Amour, and while I still love Wallis, Chastain, and Lawrence, none of their performances compare to Riva's. And if she wins tomorrow night, that fact alone may be the reason why.

The Oscar Narrative: Final Predictions - Best Supporting Actor

Will Win - Christoph Waltz "Django Unchained"

Could Win - Robert DeNiro "Silver Linings Playbook" or Tommy Lee Jones "Lincoln"

Should Win - Tommy Lee Jones "Lincoln"

Commentary - I have no freaking idea. I really don't. Every time I talk myself into one nominee, I look at the other and think I am making a mistake. Hell, as I was typing their names for this post, I paused for a second on Tommy Lee Jones. I think at this point Alan Arkin and Philip Seymour Hoffman are out, although I still wouldn't be surprise if either won. The bulk of pundits have been switching to Robert DeNiro because of his heavy campaigning and the popularity of Silver Linings. It is not a bad choice, but to date, DeNiro has won nothing, not even a small critical award. It is very rare that someone wins an Oscar without at least some precursor, at least in the critical awards. The only exception in recent memory was James Coburn, but unlike DeNiro, he had never won an Oscar. Tommy Lee Jones has the SAG win, which is big, but the buzz for Lincoln has died since those awards had been announced, plus he wasn't even there to accept the award. I am surprising myself by picking Waltz. I thought he was a longshot to even make the cut, but after Golden Globe and BAFTA wins, he is right in the thick of this race. His performance is basically a lead, he won the last big award at BAFTA right as people were voting. He is charming and has been present in this race doing SNL, and lots of press interviews (maybe not as much as DeNiro, but Waltz actually has hardware to back him up). I do not feel confident at all with this pick, but I am sticking with my guns.

Friday, February 22, 2013

2013 Independent Spirit Award Winner Predictions

Best Film- Silver Linings Playbook
Best Director - Benh Zeitlin "Beasts of the Southern Wild"
Best Actor - Bradley Cooper "Silver Linings Playbook"
Best Actress - Jennifer Lawrence "Silver Linings Playbook"
Best Supporting Actor - Matthew McConaughey "Magic Mike"
Best Supporting Actress - Ann Dowd "Compliance"
Best Screenplay - David O. Russell "Silver Linings Playbook"
Best First Feature - The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Best First Screenplay - Safety Not Guaranteed
Best Documentary - How to Survive a Plague
Best International Film - Amour
Best Cinematography - Beasts of the Southern Wild
John Cassavettes Award - Middle of Nowhere

2013 Cesar Award Winners

Amour could have some surprise wins at the Oscars on Sunday, and Argo wins yet another big award.

Best Picture

Michael Haneke, Amour

Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

Jean-Louis Trintignant, Amour

Original Screenplay
Michael Haneke, Amour

Adapted Screenplay
Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain, Rust & Bone

Supporting Actress
Valérie Benguigui, What’s In A Name

Supporting Actor
Guillaume de Tonquedec, What’s In A Name

Newcomer (Female)
Izia Higelin, Mauvaise Fille

Newcomer (Male)
Matthias Schoenaerts, Rust & Bone

Original Score
Alexandre Desplat, Rust & Bone

Antoine Deflandre, Germaine Boulay, Eric Tisserand, Cloclo

Romain Winding, Farewell, My Queen

Juliette Welfling, Rust & Bone

Christian Gasc, Farewell, My Queen

Art Direction
Katia Wyszkop, Farewell, My Queen

First Film
Louise Wimmer, Cyril Mennegun

Foreign Film

Animated Film
Ernest Et Célestine, Benjamin Renner, Vincent Patar, Stéphane Aubier

Les Invisibles, Sébastien Lifshitz

Short Film
Le Cri Du Homard, Nicolas Guiot

The Oscar Narrative: Final Predictions - Best Actor

Will Win/Should Win - Daniel Day-Lewis "Lincoln"

Could Win - Hugh Jackman "Les Miserables" or Bradley Cooper "Silver Linings Playbook"

Commentary - Silver Linings love or Hugh Jackman love could be enough for a shocker, but let's be honest. Daniel Day-Lewis is so well respected, and for many voters it is a way to honor the whole film. He has won every major precursor, and most importantly, he gives the best performance of the five. I will be shocked and horrified if anyone else wins, because I honestly don't think it's possible.

The Oscar Narrative: Final Predictions - Best Supporting Actress

Will Win/Should Win - Anne Hathaway "Les Miserables"

Could Win - Sally Field "Lincoln"

Commentary - Let's be honest, if it had been a stronger year, then most likely Amy Adams, Helen Hunt, and Jacki Weaver would probably have had trouble even being nominated. Not because they are not wonderful, which they are, but because their films are either not popular with the Academy (Adams and Hunt), or their roles are drowned out by other ones in the film (Weaver). So this comes down to Hathaway and Field, and really, with SAG, GG, BAFTA, BFCA, and most of the critics awards under her belt, I would be shocked if anyone other than Hathaway won the Oscar. It only took one shot, one song, but it was effective and Hathaway should have her acceptance speech ready to go.

Thursday, February 21, 2013

The Oscar Narrative: Final Predictions - Best Animated Feature

Will Win - Brave

Could Win- Frankenweenie or Wreck-It Ralph

Should Win - Wreck-It Ralph

Commentary - Most people, after PGA, Annie, and Critics Choice wins, are picking Wreck-It Ralph, and while it is my personal favorite, I am starting to doubt its supposed frontrunner status. While it's premise is far greater than just a gaming movie, some of the older voters may not be able to get around this initial description. Plus, with BAFTA, VES, and other major guild awards under its belt, Brave has been stealthly and quickly gaining traction right as the Academy members are voting. Wreck-It Ralph could still win, as could Frankenweenie (simply because of Tim Burton's name), but Brave has won the most industry awards that overlap with the Academy, and it is Pixar, which is eager, especially after last year's Cars 2 was such a disaster.

The Oscar Narrative: Final Predictions - Best Original and Adapted Screenplay

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win - Chris Terrio "Argo"
Could Win - David O. Russell "Silver Linings Playbook" or Tony Kushner "Lincoln"
Should Win - Tony Kushner "Lincoln"
Commentary - It really is a shame that Tony Kushner's brilliant work in Lincoln will probably go unrecognized this year. It is even a shame (although less of one) that the careful and senstive work of David O. Russell in Silver Linings Playbook will probably also go unnoticed. I like Argo, and I definitely think Chris Terrio deserved an Oscar nomination for his work. But I find it hard to accept that he will win over two superior screenplays. But alas, Argo is a machine, and since it can't win director, it will need some big award to take with it, and my guess is that it repeats its WGA win right here.

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win - Quentin Tarantino "Django Unchained"
Could Win - Mark Boal "Zero Dark Thirty" or Michael Haneke "Amour"
Should Win - Quentin Tarantino "Django Unchained" or Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola "Moonrise Kingdom"
Commentary - Another three way race, and another tough one to predict, a theme running through this year's awards. Boal won the WGA, but did not have Tarantino or Haneke to beat. Amour still risks being a film that is simply not watched, and with it winning Foreign Language, I wonder if they will feel the need to give it more. My guess is Tarantino. He hasn't won since 1995 with Pulp Fiction, and there has been a nice push for Django as of late. Plus, he beat Haneke at the BAFTA, the only real head to head matchup between the two. It could go either way, but in the end I think Tarantino is going to win another Oscar.

Wednesday, February 20, 2013

The Oscar Narrative: Final Predictions - Best Production Design and Sound Editing

Best Production Design
Will Win - Life of Pi
Could Win - Anna Karenina, Les Miserables, Lincoln
Should Win - Lincoln or Anna Karenina
Commentary - This category, once called Art Direction, has quickly moved towards digital design, and this year, with the name change, we see the Academy embracing both  the idea of built sets and moving towards newer mediums. While most people will think that the more lavish and traditional sets of Lincoln (which may be too understated for voters), Les Miserables (not as much on display due to Hooper's human close-ups), and Anna Karenina (not the most well-liked film), are the frontrunners, in this close of a race, I think that they split each other's votes and the new tradition of rewarding digital designs continues with Life of Pi.

Best Sound Editing
Will Win - Life of Pi
Could Win - Argo, Zero Dark Thirty, or Skyfall
Should Win - Zero Dark Thirty
Commentary - I will be honest with you. I have no idea who is going to win this award, I can't even really narrow it down that much. This seems to be a common thread in many of the races this year. ZDT deserves something, but I am starting to think that it will go home empty handed. Skyfall could easily take it, and Argo could win it if it starts to sweep its nominations. But my guess is that the surprise winner at the MPSE, Life of Pi, pulls a Hugo, where they reward the most technically challenging film with a large amount of technical awards. And really, it is an extremely rough guess.

The 39th Annual Saturn Award Nominees

The Saturn Awards are presented by The Academy of Sci-Fi, Fantasy, and Horror Films, which also rewards action films as well. These are genres generally ignored by the Academy, although films like Zero Dark Thirty, Argo, The Impossible, Prometheus, The Avengers, Life of Pi, Django Unchained, Skyfall, The Hobbit, and yes Les Miserables (which apparently is an action/adventure film, something I was unaware of) managed to cross over to Academy Award nominations as well. Here is this year's nominees, the winners will be announced sometime in June.

Best Science Fiction Film
"The Avengers"
"Cloud Atlas"
"The Hunger Games"

Best Fantasy Film
"The Amazing Spider-Man"
"The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"
"Life of Pi"
"Ruby Sparks"
"Snow White and the Huntsman"

Best Horror/Thriller Film
"The Cabin in the Woods"
"The Impossible"
"Seven Psychopaths"
"The Woman in Black"
"Zero Dark Thirty"

Best Action/Adventure Film
"The Bourne Legacy"
"The Dark Knight Rises"
"Django Unchained"
"Les Misérables"
"Taken 2"

Best Independent Film Release
"Killer Joe"
"The Paperboy"
"Robot and Frank"
"Safety Not Guaranteed"
"Seeking a Friend for the End of the World"

Best International Film
"Anna Karenina"
"Chicken with Plums"
"The Fairy"
"My Way"

Best Animated Film
"Wreck-It Ralph"

Best Actor
Christian Bale, "The Dark Knight Rises"
Daniel Craig, "Skyfall"
Martin Freeman, "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"
Hugh Jackman, "Les Misérables"
Joseph Gordon-Levitt, "Looper"
Mathew McConaughey, "Killer Joe"

Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, "Zero Dark Thirty"
Ann Dowd, "Compliance"
Zoe Kazan, "Ruby Sparks"
Jennifer Lawrence, "The Hunger Games"
Helen Mirren, "Hitchcock"
Naomi Watts, "The Impossible"

Best Supporting Actor
Javier Bardem, "Skyfall"
Michael Fassbender, "Prometheus"
Clark Gregg, "The Avengers"
Joseph Gordon-Levitt, "The Dark Knight Rises"
Ian McKellen, "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"
Christoph Waltz, "Django Unchained"

Best Supporting Actress
Judi Dench, "Skyfall"
Gina Gershon, "Killer Joe"
Anne Hathaway, "The Dark Knight Rises"
Anne Hathaway, "Les Misérables"
Nicole Kidman, "The Paperboy"
Charlize Theron, "Snow White and the Huntsman"

Best Performance by a Younger Actor
CJ Adams, "The Odd Life of Timothy Green"
Tom Holland, "The Impossible"
Daniel Huttlestone, "Les Misérables"
Chloe Grace Moretz, "Dark Shadows"
Suraj Sharma, "Life of Pi"
Quvenzhané Wallis, "Beasts of the Southern Wild"

Best Direction
William Friedkin, "Killer Joe"
Peter Jackson, "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"
Rian Johnson, "Looper"
Ang Lee, "Life of Pi"
Christopher Nolan, "The Dark Knight Rises"
Joss Whedon, "The Avengers"

Best Writing
"The Avengers"
"The Cabin in the Woods"
"Django Unchained"
"Killer Joe"
"Life of Pi"
"Seven Psychopaths"

Best Production Design
"Anna Karenina"
"Cloud Atlas"
"Dark Shadows"
"The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"
"Les Misérables"
"Life of Pi"

Best Editing
"The Avengers"
"The Bourne Legacy"
"Cloud Atlas"
"Life of Pi"

Best Music
"Anna Karenina"
"The Dark Knight Rises"
"The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"
"Life of Pi"

Best Costume
"Anna Karenina"
"Cloud Atlas"
"Django Unchained"
"The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"
"Les Misérables"
"Snow White and the Huntsman"

Best Makeup
"Cloud Atlas"
"The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"
"The Impossible"
"The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part 2"

Best Special Effects
"The Avengers"
"The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey"
"John Carter"
"Life of Pi"
"Snow White and the Huntsman"

Best Network Television Series
The Following
Once Upon a Time

Best Syndicated Cable Television Series
American Horror Story: Asylum
The Killing
True Blood
The Walking Dead

Best Television Presentation
Breaking Bad
Falling Skies
Game of Thrones
Ken Follet's World Without End
Mockingbird Lane
Spartacus: War of the Damned

Best Youth-Oriented Television Series
Beauty and the Beast
Doctor Who
Teen Wolf
The Vampire Diaries

Best Actor in a Television Series
Kevin Bacon "The Following"
Billy Burke "Revolution"
Bryan Cranston "Breaking Bad"
Michael C. Hall "Dexter"
Joshua Jackson "Fringe"
Timothy Hutton "Leverage"
Andrew Lincoln "The Walking Dead"

Best Actress in a Television Series
Moon Bloodgood "Falling Skies"
Mierielle Enos "The Killing"
Sarah Paulson "American Horror Story: Asylum"
Charlotte Riley "Ken Follet's World Without End"
Tracy Spiridakos "Revolution"
Anna Torv "Fringe"

Best Supporting Actor in a Television Series
Jonathan Banks "Breaking Bad"
Giancarlo Esposito "Breaking Bad"
Todd Lasance "Spartacus: War of the Damned"
Colm Meaney "Hell on Wheels"
David Morrisey "The Walking Dead"
John Noble "Fringe"

Best Supporting Actress in a Television Series
Jennifer Carpenter "Dexter"
Sarah Carter "Falling Skies"
Anna Gunn "Breaking Bad"
Laurie Holden "The Walking Dead"
Jessica Lange "American Horror Story: Asylum"
Beth Riesgraf "Leverage"

Best Guest Role in a Television Series
Blair Brown "Fringe"
Terry O'Quinn "Falling Skies"
Lance Reddick "Fringe"
Mark Sheppard "Leverage"
Ray Stevenson "Dexter"
Yvonne Strahovski "Dexter"

Costume Designer's Guild (CDG) Award Winners

Jany Temime, Skyfall

Jacqueline Durran, Anna Karenina

Eiko Ishioka, Mirror Mirror

Molly Maginnis, Smash

Caroline McCall, Downton Abbey

Lou Eyrich, American Horror Story: Asylum, Season 2

Tuesday, February 19, 2013

The Oscar Narrative: Final Predictions - Best Costume Design

Will Win - Anna Karenina

Could Win - Les Miserables, Snow White and the Huntsman, Lincoln and Mirror Mirror

Should Win - Mirror Mirror

Commentary - Lincoln and Les Miserables are the two Best Picture nominees, and their designers, both first time nominees, had to cloth a large amount of people. Snow White and the Huntsman's costumes were designed by the ever-popular Colleen Atwood, so they cannot be counted out. And, while some did not like Mirror Mirror as a film, no one can deny the beauty of the costumes designed by the late Eiko Ishioka. A sentimental vote is possible as well. But I think that three time nominee Jacqueline Durran will get her first win for the incredible costumes of Anna Karenina. I know that the film is not the most well-liked of the bunch, but in this category, voters have tended to toss aside prejudices and focus on the grandeur of the costumes. Anna Karenina fits the bill.

The Oscar Narrative: Final Predictions - Short Films

Best Live Action Short
Will Win/Should Win - Curfew
Could Win - Asad, Buzkashi Boys
Commentary - Three potential winners, three toss-ups in my opinion. I am going with Curfew because, like so many of our shorts this year, is the most emotionally effective.

Best Documentary Short
Will Win - Open Heart
Could Win - Inocente, Monday's at Racine's 
Should Win
Commentary - It is hard not to watch these Doc Shorts and not get emotional, as they all pull at your heart strings. Both Inocente and Monday at Racine's (my personal favorite of the five), are outstanding pieces and could easily win this prize. But my money is on Open Heart. The story of young Rwandans risking their lives for heart surgery in the Sudan is not only a heart-tugger, but it is also an important study of third world poverty and access to medical treatment. I think that combination is hard to beat. 

Best Animated Short
Will Win - Paperman
Could Win - Adam and Dog, Head Over Heels, Maggie Simpson in The Longest Daycare
Should Win - Adam and Dog
Commentary - A great race with some great films, including a Simpson's short, Disney's best in years, and a former Disney animator creating a refreshing look at the classic Adam and Eve story. But with the voting now open to the whole Academy, and Disney's name attached to Paperman (which was shown before Wreck-It Ralph, another big contender in Animation this year), I think that it is going to be the one to beat. Although, I find it hard that voters would see Adam and Dog and not be moved.

Monday, February 18, 2013

The Oscar Narrative: Final Predictions - Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Will Win - The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Could Win/Should Win - Les Miserables

Commentary - Many people are picking Les Miserables, and it is definitely in the race. I also think that while it may be the most subtle of the three, and the best. But, this category has always favored two types of films. One is biopics. Hitchcock could surprise here, but in the last three cases of biopics winning Makeup (Frida, La Vie en Rose, and The Iron Lady), they have had a corresponding acting nod for the actor that they transformed. Hitchcock did not get Mirren or Hopkins in, and the film has no buzz at all. The other type of film that wins is fantasy. Look at the first and third LOTR, Pan's Labyrinth, Star Trek, Curious Case of Benjamin Button, and Wolfman. In these cases, the most obvious makeup was the choice. While The Hobbit may not be LOTR, but it did get several technical nods, and the makeup work was top notch. It really is a close race, but I am favoring the most obvious choice.

Motion Picture Sound Editors (MPSE) Award Winners

When the nominees were announced, I immediately chose Life of Pi for Sound Editing. Sure, Skyfall was the better choice, but I figured Sound Mixing was a lock with Les Mis, and that they would "Hugo" Life of Pi and go with the film they liked the best with the most technical aspects. Then I switched to Argo, because the love the film so much and this is a place to honor it. I had also thought about Skyfall. Well, Life of Pi surprised last night with a couple of wins, and Skyfall took one as well. Still confused as hell. Also continually more confusing is the Best Animated Feature Category. Brave had started to really emerge as a frontrunner with so many industry awards and BAFTA, but now that Wreck-It Ralph has won another Guild award, I am starting to wonder which is more popular:



















Sunday, February 17, 2013

Final Oscar Poll in Sidebar

With only one week to go, the final poll of this year's Oscar race is in the sidebar. Naturally, you can make your pick of who you think will win Best Picture. It is kind of hard to believe that this year's race is almost over, but with one week to go there is still a lot to do. The final guilds (MPSE and CDG) will weigh in, and I will continue to give my final predictions all the way up until the day of the Oscars. One week to go!

Writer's Guild of America (WGA) Award Winners

I was hoping for a Moonrise Kingdom win, just because it hasn't won really anything this season, but happy for Boal. I still don't get how voters can pick Argo over Lincoln in any screenplay award. The film as a whole, fine, but no one accomplised what Kushner did this year, and despite my sincere hope that Oscar voters see the truth, my guess is that Argo repeats next week. In terms of Original Screenplay, ZDT gets a nice boost, but without Amour and Django, it doesn't hold as much weight. Check back tomorrow for MPSE Winners, and continued final predictions as our countdown of one week to the Oscars begins!

Best Adapted Screenplay - Chris Terrio "Argo"
Best Original Screenplay - Mark Boal "Zero Dark Thirty"
Best Documentary Screenplay - Malik Bendejoulloul "Searching for Sugar Man"Best Drama Series - Breaking Bad
Best Comedy Series - Louie
Best New Series - Girls
Best Episode Drama Series - Semi Chellas and Matthew Weiner "Mad Men - The Other Woman"
Best Episodic Comedy Series - Elaine Ko "Modern Family - Virgin Territory"
Best Long Form Adapted - Danny Strong "Game Change"
Best Long Form Original - Ted Mann, Ronald Parker, and Bill Kerby "Hatfields & McCoys"
Best Variety Series - Portlandia
Best Variety Special - The 66th Annual Tony Awards
Best Daytime Drama - The Young and the Restless
Best Animation - Jeff Westbrook "The Simpsons - Ned and Edna's Blend Agenda"

2013 WGA Predictions

Here are my predictions for the WGA Awards tonight:

Best Adapted Screenplay - Chris Terrio "Argo"
Best Original Screenplay - Roman Coppola and Wes Anderson "Moonrise Kingdom"
Best Documentary Screenplay - Searching for Sugar Man
Best Drama Series - Breaking Bad
Best Comedy Series - Modern Family
Best New Series - Girls
Best Episodic Drama - George Mastras "Breaking Bad - Dead Freight"
Best Episodic Comedy - Cindy Chupack "Modern Family - Little Bo Bleep"
Best Long Form Original - Ted Mann, Ronald Parker, Bill Kirby "Hatfields & McCoys"
Best Long Form Adapted - Danny Strong "Game Change"
Best Animation - Jeff Westbrook "The Simpsons - Ned and Edna's Blend Agenda"
Best Comedy/Variety Series - The Colbert Report
Best Comedy/Variety Special - After the Academy Awards
Best Daytime Drama - One Life to Live

The Oscar Narrative: Final Predictions - Best Sound Mixing and Film Editing

Best Film Editing
Will Win - Argo
Could Win -  Zero Dark Thirty, Silver Linings Playbook, Life of Pi, Lincoln
Should Win - Zero Dark Thirty or Lincoln
Commentary - Even when I thought Lincoln was going to win Best Picture, I felt that Argo would be the most appealing in this category. If an upset is bound to happen, we will probably see if first in this category. So if Lincoln, Life of Pi, or SLP win, it could be a sign of things to come. Zero Dark Thirty is actually the best edited film of the year, and they could throw it a bone the way they did The Girl With the Dragon Tatto (And ZDT managed the Best Picture nod). But these possibilties are all pretty slim, because of Argo's steamrolling through the branches, and its most likely Best Picture win.

Best Sound Mixing
Will Win - Les Miserables
Could Win/Should Win - Skyfall
Commentary - Like Roger Deakins, it is incredible and ridiculous that Greg P. Russell has been nominated so many times (16! in this case), and has not won at least one Academy award. So if I had a vote, Skyfall (which coincidentally I liked a lot better than Les Mis) would get it. But alas, Les Miserables was the frontrunner simply for being a musical, which have been rewarded in this category a lot. The Academy equates the loudest with the best, so a musical seems like an appropriate choice. Plus, it just won the CAS award showing Academy voters that even within that community they want Les Mis. I think it gets the Oscar.

ACE Eddie Award Winners

No surprises here as Argo continues its romp of the guilds, and Silver Linings didn't have much competition. But once again, Brave wins the award. I know most people will pick Wreck-It Ralph, but as of now I am starting to lean towards Pixar. Also, wins for Nurse Jackie and The Newsroom help boost the Emmy profile of these two shows, both of which will have a tough time getting into the major categories.

Best Edited Feature Film - Dramatic
William Goldenberg, A.C.E.

Best Edited Feature Film - Comedy/Musical
"Silver Linings Playbook"
Jay Cassidy, A.C.E. and Crispin Struthers

Best Edited Feature Film - Animated
Nicholas C. Smith, A.C.E. & Robert Grahamjones, A.C.E

Best Edited Documentary - Feature
"Searching for Sugar Man"
Malik Bendjelloul

Best Edited Documentary - Television
"American Masters: Phil Ochs - There But For Fortune"
Pamela Scott Arnold

Best Edited Half-Hour Series for Television
"Nurse Jackie" - "Handle Your Scandal"
Gary Levy

Best Edited One-Hour Series for Commercial Television
"Breaking Bad" - "Gliding Over All”
Skip MacDonald, A.C.E.

Best Edited One-Hour Series for Non-Commercial Television
"The Newsroom" - "We Just Decided To (Pilot)"
Anne McCabe, A.C.E.

Best Edited Miniseries or Motion Picture for Television
"Hemingway & Gellhorn"
Walter Murch, A.C.E.

Best Edited Non-Scripted Series
"Frozen Planet" - "To the Ends of the Earth"
Andy Netley & Sharon Gillooly

Golden Eddie (Filmmaker of the Year Award)
Steven Spielberg

Lifetime Achievement Award
Richard Marks, A.C.E.
Larry Silk, A.C.E.

Student Competition
Michael Smith – AFI

Cinema Audio Society (CAS) Award Winners

Les Miserables stakes its claim as the frontrunner, and Brave continues to sweep the technical guilds, pushing it closer to Oscar upset.

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Mixing for Motion Pictures - Live Action
"Les Misérables"

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Mixing for Motion Pictures - Animation

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Mixing for Television Movie or Mini-Series
"Hatfields & McCoys" - "Part 1"

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Mixing for Television Series - 1 Hour
"Homeland" - "Beirut is Back"

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Mixing for Television Series - 1/2 Hour
"Modern Family" - "Disneyland"

Outstanding Achievement in Sound Mixing for Television Non-Fiction, Variety or Music Series or Specials
"The 2012 Rock & Roll Hall of Fame Induction Ceremony"

Technical Achievement Award - Production
Sound Devices - 664 Field Production Mixer with Recorder

Technical Achievement Award - Post-Production
Dolby - Atmos

Filmmaker Award
Jonathan Demme

Lifetime Achievement Award
Chris Newman, CAS

Friday, February 15, 2013

The Oscar Narrative: Final Predictions - Best Cinematography

Will Win - Claudio Miranda "Life of Pi"

Could Win/Should Win - Roger Deakins "Skyfall"

Commentary - God, would someone please just give Roger Deakin an Oscar! The ASC win is great for Deakins, but he has won that before without winning the Oscar. Plus, despite Skyfall's popularity in the UK, Life of Pi managed to take the BAFTA. I think it is a closer race than most people think, but I think that in the end the gorgeous and more obvious cinematography of Life of Pi will prevail. But honestly, for Deakin's sake, I hope I am wrong.

Thursday, February 14, 2013

The Oscar Narrative: Final Predictions - Best Original Score and Song

Best Original Score
Will Win - Mychael Danna "Life of Pi"
Should Win - John Williams "Lincoln"
Could Win - John Williams "Lincoln", Thomas Newman "Skyfall", or Alexandre Desplat "Argo"
Commentary - Life of Pi is probably the most obvious choice, which usually means that it will be the winner, it has the epic sounding score that Academy voters love. For my money, I think that John Williams' ability to temper his normal epic instincts to help protect the intimacy of Lincoln is his most subtle, yet strongest work in a long time, and he could win, as could Thomas Newman for Skyfall, which won the BAFTA. The one I am really looking out for is Alexandre Desplat. Not only is he on his fifth nomination, all coming since 2006, but he composed the score for the Best Picture frontrunner. If voters are looking for another award to give Argo, then score could be a place to do so. My money is still on Danna though.

Best Original Song
Will Win/Should Win - Adele and Paul Epworth "Skyfall" from Skyfall
Could Win - Everbody Needs a Best Friend from Ted or Suddenly from Les Miserables
Commentary - Everybody and their brother is picking Adele's awesome theme song to Skyfall, and I have to agree. Not only is it clearly the best of the bunch, but with her name attached to it, it seems like a shoo-in. Which is also why I am cautiously optimistic. They have screwed around with this category so much, and picked some ridiculous winners (there were also a lot of great ones too, despite popular belief), that it is always unpredictable. Actually, both of these music categories really lack precursors to stem from, so they are always a shot in the dark. Watch out for MacFarlane, whose is hosting, and with Suddenly from Les Miserables. Also, the song won the Golden Globe, which doesn't match up with Oscar very often. Like I said, it seems like a lock, but, especially in this year, nothing is as it seems.

Wednesday, February 13, 2013

The Oscar Narrative: Final Predictions - Best Visual Effects

Will Win/Should Win - Life of Pi

Could Win - The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey or The Avengers

Commentary - If there is a Best Picture nominee in the Visual Effects category, it is almost guaranteed the win. In some cases, like Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Avatar, Inception, The Lord of the Rings movies, this works out for the better, as the better film also happens to have the best effects of the bunch. Last year though, while I liked Hugo, and it was clearly the better film, it did not have the best effects with Rise of the Planet of the Apes also in that category. This year looks to be more like Avatar, and less like Hugo, as probably the best film of the bunch, Life of Pi, also has the most dazzling 3-D visual effects, particularly the stunning digital tiger. And my guess is that none of the other films, even a Peter Jackson film (which have won four over the last decade or so), will be enough to overcome it.

The 48th Annual ACM Award Nominees

Here is the full list for this year's ACM Awards:

Jason Aldean
Luke Bryan
Miranda Lambert
Blake Shelton
Taylor Swift

Jason Aldean
Luke Bryan
Eric Church
Toby Keith
Blake Shelton

Miranda Lambert
Martina McBride
Kacey Musgraves
Taylor Swift
Carrie Underwood

Big & Rich
Florida Georgia Line
Love and Theft
Thompson Square

The Band Perry
Eli Young Band
Lady Antebellum
Little Big Town
Zac Brown Band

Lee Brice
Brantley Gilbert
Hunter Hayes

Jana Kramer
Kacey Musgraves
Sunny Sweeney

Florida Georgia Line
Love and Theft
Thompson Square

NEW ARTIST OF THE YEAR PRESENTED BY KOHL’S DEPARTMENT STORES [Winners of New Male, New Female & New Vocal Duo or Group Of The Year]
Florida Georgia Line
Brantley Gilbert
Jana Kramer

"Blown Away," Carrie Underwood
"Chief," Eric Church
"Red," Taylor Swift
"Tailgates & Tanlines," Luke Bryan
"Tornado," Little Big Town

"Even If it Breaks Your Heart," Eli Young Band
"Over You," Miranda Lambert
"Pontoon," Little Big Town
"Springsteen," Eric Church
"Wanted," Hunter Hayes

"A Woman Like You," Lee Brice
"Even If it Breaks Your Heart," Eli Young Band
"Over You," Miranda Lambert
"Springsteen," Eric Church
"Wanted," Hunter Hayes

Rodey Clawson
Dallas Davidson
Josh Kear
Luke Laird
Shane McAnally

"Creepin'," Eric Church
"Merry Go 'Round," Kacey Musgraves
"Tornado," Little Big Town
"Wanted," Hunter Hayes
"We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together," Taylor Swift
"The Wind," Zac Brown Band

"Don't Rush," Kelly Clarkson, featuring Vince Gill
"Easy," Rascal Flatts, featuring Natasha Bedingfield
"Feel Like a Rock Star," Kenny Chesney and Tim McGraw
"Let it Rain," David Nail, featuring Sarah Buxton
"The Only Way I Know," Jason Aldean, with Luke Bryan and Eric Church

Tuesday, February 12, 2013

The Oscar Narrative: Final Predictions - Foreign Language and Documentary

Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win/Should Win - Amour
Could Win - A Royal Affair or War Witch
Commentary - Amour is the first film since Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon to cross over into the Best Picture category, and is the only film of the five nominees to have any nominations outside of this category. So conventional wisdom says that it is a shoo-in. Well, until the Foreign Language category is opened up to the full membership, then it will never be that simple. Voters could pull a doozy and go with War Witch or Royal Affair, both of which are a lot easier to sit through than Amour, which while beautiful, is hard to watch. I still think Amour wins, and it should win, but I am not as confident as everyone else. Especially in this crazy year where anything can, and has, happened.
Best Documentary Feature
Will Win - Searching for Sugar Man
Should Win - 5 Broken Cameras
Could Win - The Gatekeepers
Commentary - In this category, the old voting system rewarded either the most populist choice, or a hard-hitting political docs, which this year equals a battle between Searching for Sugar Man and The Gatekeepers (although I would vote for 5 Broken Cameras). But if The Gatekeepers was going to put up a fight, it needed to have won something, and so far it was been a sweep for Sugar Man. Plus, by opening up the vote to the whole Academy, the board of governors has opened up this category to even more populist choices, Sugar Man being the perfect fit.

Monday, February 11, 2013

New Oscar Poll in Sidebar

This week you can make your pick for Best Director. This race really is a toss up, so it will be interesting to see how you guys think it will turn out!

American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) Winners

So Skyfall got a well-deserved win here, but Deakins has won here before and come up short at Oscar. I would love to be wrong, but my guess is that the work of Life of Pi will be too hard to overlook.

Feature Film
"Skyfall" (Roger Deakins)

One-Hour Episodic Television Series(tie)

"Hunted" (Balazs Bolygo) and "Game of Thrones" (Kramer Morgenthau)

Television Movie/Miniseries

"Great Expectations" (Florian Hoffmeister)

Half-Hour Episodic Series

"Wilfred" (Bradford Lipton)

Sunday, February 10, 2013

The 55th Annual Grammy Award Winners

Album of the Year - Mumford & Sons "Babel"
Record of the Year - Gotye feat. Kimbra "Somebody That I Used to Know"
Best New Artist - fun.
Song of the Year - fun. "We Are Young"
Best Country Album - Zac Brown Band "Uncaged"
Best Rap/Sung Collaboration - Jay-Z, Kanye West feat. Frank Ocean and The-Dream "No Church in the Wild"
Best Pop Vocal Album - Kelly Clarkson "Stronger"!!
Best Rock Performance - The Black Keys "Lonely Boy"
Best Urban/Alternative Album - Frank Ocean "Channel Orange"
Best Country Solo Performance - Carrie Underwood "Blown Away"
Best Pop Solo Performance - Adele "Set Fire to the Rain (Live)"
Best Pop Duo/Group Performance - Gotye feat. Kimbra "Somebody That I Used to Know"
Best Dance Recording - Skrillex feat. Sirah "Bangarang"
Best Electronica/Dance Album - Skrillex "Bangarang"
Best Traditional Pop Vocal Album - Paul McCartney "Kisses on the Bottom"
Best Hard Rock/Metal Performance - Halestorm "Love Bites (So Do I)"
Best Rock Song - The Black Keys "Lonely Boy"
Best Rock Album - The Black Keys "El Camino"
Best Alternative Music Album - Gotye "Making Mirrors"
Best R&B Performance - Usher "Climax"
Best Traditional R&B Performance - Beyonce "Love on Top"
Best R&B Song - Miguel "Adorn"
Best R&B Album - Robert Glasper Experiment "Black Radio"
Best Rap Performance - Jay-Z and Kanye West "N**gas in Paris"
Best Rap Song - Shawn Carter, Mike Dean, Chauncey Hollis & Kanye West "N**gas in Paris"
Best Rap Album - Drake "Take Care"
Best Country Duo/Group Performance - Little Big Town "Pontoon"
Best Country Song - Josh Kear and Chris Tompkins "Blown Away"
Best Americana Album - Bonnie Raitt "Slipstream"
Best Musical Theater Album - Once The Musical
Best Song Written for Visual Media - T-Bone Burnett, Taylor Swift, and The Civil Wars "Safe and Sound" from The Hunger Games
Best Score Soundtrack Album - Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo"
Best Complilation Soundtrack Album - Midnight in Paris
Best Spoken Word Album - Janis Ian "Society's Child: My Autobiography"
Best Comedy Album - Jimmy Fallon "Blow Your Pants Off"
Best Jazz Vocal Album - Esperanza Spalding "Radio Music Society"
Best Remixed Recording, Non Classical - Skrillex "Promises"
Best Short Form Music Video - Rihanna feat. Calvin Harris "We Found Love"
Best Long Form Music Video - Mumford & Sons, Edward Sharpes, The Magnetic Zeros and Old Crow Medicine Show "Big Easy Express"

The 66th Annual BAFTA Award Winners

Best Film - Argo
Best Director - Ben Affleck "Argo"
Best Actor - Daniel Day-Lewis "Lincoln"
Best Actress - Emmanuelle Riva "Amour"
Best Film Not in the English Language - Amour
Best Documentary - Searching For Sugar Man
Best Supporting Actor - Christoph Waltz "Django Unchained"
Best Supporting Actress - Anne Hathaway "Les Miserables"
Best Original Screenplay -  Quentin Tarantino "Django Unchained"
Best Adapted Screenplay - David O. Russell "Silver Linings Playbook"
Best Original Film Score - Thomas Newman "Skyfall"
Best Cinematography - Life of Pi
Best Production Design - Les Miserables
Best Editing - Argo
Best Sound - Les Miserables
Best Animated Film - Brave
Best Special Effects - Life of Pi
Best Makeup and Hair -  Les Miserables
Best Costumes - Anna Karenina
Best Outstanding British Film - Skyfall
Best Short Film - Swimmer
Best Animated Short - The Making of Longbird
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer -  Bart Layton & Dimitri Doganis
"The Imposter"
Outstanding British Contribution to Cinema Winner - Tessa Ross