Tuesday, July 23, 2013

The Oscar Narrative: July Predictions - Best Supporting Actress

July Predictions
Amy Adams "American Hustle"
Margo Martindale "August Osage: County"
Julia Roberts "August: Osage County"
Octavia Spencer "Fruitvale Station"
Oprah Winfrey "Lee Daniel's The Butler"

Other Contenders - Cameron Diaz "The Counselor", Cate Blanchett "The Monuments Men", Naomie Harris "Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom", Lupita Nyong'o "12 Years a Slave", Sally Hawkins "Blue Jasmine", Kristin Scott Thomas "The Invisible Woman", Viola Davis "Prisoners", Mario Bello "Prisoners", Melissa Leo "Prisoners", Penelope Cruz "The Counselor", Jennifer Garner "Dallas Buyers Club", Jennifer Lawrence "American Hustle", Melonie Diaz "Fruitvale Station", Amy Adams "Her", Rooney Mara "Her", Carey Mulligan "Inside Llewyn Davis", Nicole Kidman "The Railway Man", Laura Linney "The Fifth Estate", Emily Watson "The Book Thief", Robin Wright "A Most Wanted Man", Julianne Moore "Carrie", Shirley MacLaine "The Secret Life of Walter Mitty", Juliette Lewis "August: Osage County", Jessica Lange "Therese", Sarah Paulson "12 Years a Slave", Alfred Woodard "12 Years a Slave"
Commentary - A strong group of actresses this year looks to make this a tough race. Names like Cate Blanchett, Cameron Diaz. Jennifer Lawrence, Viola Davis, Melissa Leo, Carey Mulligan, Laura Linney, and countless others are on the outside looking in at the moment. In this upcoming race there is one thing I know: If August: Osage County is good, it is going to be a huge hit with the acting branch of the Academy. These supporting races constantly get two in, and this year both Margo Martindale and Julia Roberts are great possibilities. But the key to both of their nominations is this: the film has got to live up to the hype. One of the biggest contenders so far this year is Fruitvale Station. It has to overcome its early release, but I think the film is emotional enough, and has enough support from the Weinstein company to play well in the Oscar race. Now that Octavia Spencer is one the Oscar radar with her win for The Help, and she is getting rave reviews for her role, I expect her to continue to be a big contender all the way to the finish line (also looking out for her co-star Melonie Diaz who could take her spot). I am still not sure about Lee Daniel's The Butler (smooth move on the title Harvey). The first trailer was okay, although I think it was trying too hard to be Oscar-bait, and I am not sure it reflects the film (if it does then Lee Daniels has changed his style dramatically from his previous efforts). All of that being said, I think that Oprah's role in the film looks incredibly baity, and she is a previous nominee. Plus, she is beloved in the industry and an undeniable force. The last slot was a tough one. I think Cate Blanchett will get in for Blue Jasmine, so maybe her Monuments Men role may not be as prevalent on voters' minds, and names like Cameron Diaz, Naomie Harris, and Lupita Nyong'o will all be newcomers to the race. So I am going with an actress who has become a safe bet for an Oscar nomination. Four nominations in (including one for a David O'Russell film), is incredible for Amy Adams considering how young she is. Teaming up again with O'Russell, and featured in an incredible cast could easily get her to nod number five.

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