Will Win - Judith Light "The Assembled Parties"
Could Win - Shalita Grant "Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike", Carrie Coon "Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?", Condola Rashad "The Trip to Bountiful"
Commentary - This is a tough race with a lot of names thrown into the pot. Shalita Grant holds her own against some big names in VSMS, as does Condola Rashad (Phylicia Rashads' daughter) against Cicely Tyson in The Trip to Bountiful. Another possibility is Carrie Coon, who is getting her first nomination for her work in the revival of Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf? By my guess is that Judith Light, who earns her third consecutive nomination, will go for the gold again. Her win last year for Other Desert Cities may cause pause with some Tony voters, but in the end I think she wins her second Tony in a row.