Best Director of a Play
Will Win - Nicholas Martin "Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike"
Could Win - George C. Wolfe "Lucky Guy"
Commentary - Nicholas Martin has never won a Tony Award, but on his second nomination, he could get the gold for his new play Vanya and Sonia and Masha and Spike", which is the frontrunner for the big prize: Best Play. However, do not discount the power and popularity of George C. Wolfe. Not only did he direct the great Tom Hanks to his first Tony nomination, but he is clearly popular with the American Theater Wing having won a total of five Tony Awards over his illustrious career.
Best Director of a Musical
Will Win - Matthew Warchus "Matilda"
Could Win - Diane Paulus "Pippin"
Commentary - Matthew Warchus is a previous Tony winner with lots of a credentials, and his latest effort Matilda: The Musical is the frontrunner for Best Musical. But I think that this year, after adapting successfully three revivals (Hair, Porgy and Bess, and now Pippin), that Diane Paulus is going to be tough competition as she fights to win her first Tony for the revival of Pippin (also the frontrunner in its respective category). In the end, I am going with Warchus simply because I think it is going to be the bigger winner of the night.