Best Breakthrough Performance
Will Win - Rebel Wilson "Pitch Perfect"
Should Win - Really any of them
Could Win - Ezra Miller "The Perks of Being a Wallflower"
Commentary - This is actually a pretty good category, with lots of great performances, so it is hard to choose which one is the best. Rebel Wilson may seem like the oddball in the group up against more dramatic, Oscar fare, but she is pretty damn funny in Pitch Perfect, and is setting herself up as one of the hot young talents in comedy. Furthermore, she is hosting, and this is a popularity contest. While it would also be great to see Miller or Wallis take the stage, Wilson is a great choice as well, and the most likely winner.
Will Win - Avengers vs. Tom Hiddleston "The Avengers"
Could Win - Christian Bale vs. Tom Hardy "The Dark Knight Rises"
Should Win - Jamie Foxx vs. Candieland Henchman "Django Unchained"
Commentary - Once again some great choices, but The Avengers was probably the most popular film of last year, and that final fight scene lasted a long time, and was really the climax of the film. While Batman could sneak in, I think that the epicness of The Avengers will rule the day.
Will Win - Bradley Cooper and Jennifer Lawrence "Silver Linings Playbook"
Could Win - Emma Watson and Logan Lerman "The Perks of Being a Wallflower"
Should Win - Perks; or Jared Gilman and Kara Hayward "Moonrise Kingdom"
Commentary - The sweetness and tenderness of the love story between Emma Watson and Logan Lerman is hard for me to ignore, as is the quirky but sweet one at the center of Moonrise Kingdom. But I also like the relationship in SLP (an odd one, but it works). Once again, the star power of the "it" girl Jennifer Lawrence will probably be enough to overcome competition. Ironically, all of the three mentioned here are independent films, I have to keep reminding myself that this is the MTV Movie Awards, not the Indie Sprits or Oscars.
Will Win/Should Win - Leonardo Dicaprio "Django Unchained"
Could Win - Tom Hardy "The Dark Knight Rises",
Commentary - It is really hard for me to imagine Tom Hardy winning, because, while he was not as bad as some people claimed, does he really deserve the same honor as Heath Ledger for The Joker? That being said, I think that Leonardo Dicaprio will prevail in this case. He is not just evil, he is deliciously evil, more over the top and outrageous. And I think that fans will respond that that more than some of the other contenders.