Bertie Carvel "Matilda"
Brandon Victor Dixon "Motown: The Musical"
Billy Porter "Kinky Boots"
Stark Sands "Kinky Boots"
Anthony Warlow "Annie"
Other Contenders - Jim Norton "The Mystery of Edwin Drood", Rob McClure "Chaplin", Santino Fontana "Cinderella", Matthew James Thomas "Pippin", Johnny Rabe "A Christmas Story", Constantine Maroulis "Jekyll and Hyde", Keith Carradine "Hands on a Hard Body", Hunter Foster "Hands on a Hard Body", John Bolton "A Christmas Story"
Commentary - There are three guys that are battling it out for the top prize. The frontrunner, and at this point, the winner apparent is Billy Porter for his role in Kinky Boots. He may not have any previous Tony History, but his performance is clearly the favorite of the bunch. The other two to really watch out for, in terms of actually winning, are Brandon Victor Dixon for his role in Motown: The Musical, and Anthony Warlow for Annie. Dixon was nominated for The Color Purple, and despite Motown's mixed reviews, I think there is enough good will for him to make the cut again. Anthony Warlow is making his Broadway debut in Annie, but I think the revival is popular enough to get nomiantions across the board. I am currently predicting Bertie Carvel for Matilda, and if he gets nominated, he could also be a dark horse contender. But there is a lot of competition, and he could be left off the list. My final slot is going to Billy Porter's co-star Stark Sands. If the show has enough good will and coattails, then Sands is in. But if in the end it is all about Porter, then someone like previous nominee Jim Norton, or potential first time nominees Rob McClure and Matthew James could be in instead.