Will Win - The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Could Win/Should Win - Les Miserables
Commentary - Many people are picking Les Miserables, and it is definitely in the race. I also think that while it may be the most subtle of the three, and the best. But, this category has always favored two types of films. One is biopics. Hitchcock could surprise here, but in the last three cases of biopics winning Makeup (Frida, La Vie en Rose, and The Iron Lady), they have had a corresponding acting nod for the actor that they transformed. Hitchcock did not get Mirren or Hopkins in, and the film has no buzz at all. The other type of film that wins is fantasy. Look at the first and third LOTR, Pan's Labyrinth, Star Trek, Curious Case of Benjamin Button, and Wolfman. In these cases, the most obvious makeup was the choice. While The Hobbit may not be LOTR, but it did get several technical nods, and the makeup work was top notch. It really is a close race, but I am favoring the most obvious choice.