Will Win/Should Win - Anne Hathaway "Les Miserables"
Could Win - Sally Field "Lincoln"
Commentary - Let's be honest, if it had been a stronger year, then most likely Amy Adams, Helen Hunt, and Jacki Weaver would probably have had trouble even being nominated. Not because they are not wonderful, which they are, but because their films are either not popular with the Academy (Adams and Hunt), or their roles are drowned out by other ones in the film (Weaver). So this comes down to Hathaway and Field, and really, with SAG, GG, BAFTA, BFCA, and most of the critics awards under her belt, I would be shocked if anyone other than Hathaway won the Oscar. It only took one shot, one song, but it was effective and Hathaway should have her acceptance speech ready to go.