Will Win - fun.
Should Win/Could Win - Frank Ocean
Commentary - Some years, this award has afforded us some surprises (Esperanza Spalding for example). So even Hunter Hayes, The Lumineers, or Alabama Shakes are possibilities, as all have done well in their respective fields this year. But my guess is that this award is between the two artists who both made marks on other general categories, Frank Ocean in Album and fun in all four across the board. Ocean has the critical acclaim, and news is that his album just went gold. Compared to fun's sells that its not great, but it shows that he has at least a little power on the charts. But in terms of surprising Grammy popularity, radio airplay, and album sales, no one in this category compares to fun. I resent that they are considered new artists as they were once The Format, and that this is their second album, but Bon Iver's win last year proves, and many other nominees and winners over the years, that what the Recording Academy really means by "new" is when they finally get around to noticing them.