Will Win/Should Win - Daniel Day-Lewis "Lincoln"
Could Win - Hugh Jackman "Les Miserables" or Bradley Cooper "Silver Linings Playbook"
Commentary - Silver Linings love or Hugh Jackman love could be enough for a shocker, but let's be honest. Daniel Day-Lewis is so well respected, and for many voters it is a way to honor the whole film. He has won every major precursor, and most importantly, he gives the best performance of the five. I will be shocked and horrified if anyone else wins, because I honestly don't think it's possible.