State of the Race - July Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay

July Predictions
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, and Jim Rash "The Descendants"
Eric Roth "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"
George Clooney and Grant Heslov "The Ides of March"
Aaron Sorkin and Steve Zaillan "Moneyball",
Richard Curtis and Lee Hall "War Horse"

Other Contenders - Steve Zaillan "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo", Roman Polanski and Yasmina Reza "Carnage", Cameron Crowe and Aline Brosh McKenna "We Bought a Zoo", Bridget O'Connor and Peter Straughan "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy", John Logan "Hugo", Christopher Hampton "A Dangerous Method", John Bannville and Glenn Close "Albert Nobbs", Adrian Hodges "My Week With Marilyn", Rory Kinnear and Lynne Ramsey "We Need to Talk About Kevin", David Nicholls "One Day", Steve Kloves "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2", Tate Taylor "The Help",

Commentary - There is a good chance that not one of these predicted five gets in, but for now, they look like they are at least top contenders. War Horse looks to be an Oscar vehicle for Spielberg, and if it adapts well to the screen it will get some recogintion. Alexander Payne has already won this award, so even though Jim Taylor is not with him this time, if The Descendants is good, he is definitely a contender. Eric Roth is also a winner, and I have learned that you never doubt the Oscar machine that is Stephen Daldry. The Ides of March also looks great, and with Clooney and Heslov behind it, it could easily grab a spot. In the last slot I am going with a lighter fair featuring last year's winner Aaron Sorkin and the power of Steve Zaillan, but we need to see and hear more about Moneyball before that pick sticks. This is a heavy category and if you look at the Other Contenders, you see that there are plenty of awesome contenders which could easily get in including, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Carnage, We Bought a Zoo, Hugo, TTSS, Harry Potter, The Help, We Need to Talk About Kevin, Albert Nobbs, A Dangerous Method, and plenty others.