Sandra Bullock "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"
Viola Davis "The Help"
Kiera Knightley "A Dangerous Method"
Vanessa Redgrave "Coriolanus"
Kate Winslet "Carnage"
Other Contenders - Octavia Spencer "The Help", Marisa Tomei "The Ides of March", Judi Dench "My Week with Marilyn" or "J. Edgar", Naomi Watts "J. Edgar", Carey Mulligan "Shame", Janet McTeer "Albert Nobbs", Judy Davis "The Eyes of the Storm", Shailene Woodley "The Descendants", Andrea Riseborough "W.E.", Mia Wasikowska "Albert Nobbs", Emily Watson "War Horse", Melissa McCarthy "Bridesmaids", Amy Ryan "Win Win", Patricia Clarkson "One Day", Elizabeth Banks "Welcome to People", Marion Cotillard "Midnight in Paris", Kathy Bates "Midnight in Paris", Chloe Moretz "Hugo", Jessica Chastain "The Tree of Life"
Commentary - Remember, it is only July, and this race is still wide open. But that doesn't mean that some contenders haven't already emerged as definite contenders. For the first time in many years, previous winner and acting legend Vanessa Redgrave is getting rave reviews for Ralph Fiennes' Coriolanus. However, the film could flop with larger audiences, and overall it seems that its good, but a lot of praise is on Redgrave alone, which means the film could fade in the backgroud. But then again, shes Vanessa Redgrave, so nothing is impossible. Viola Davis is also getting a lot of pre-release buzz for The Help, but once again, the quality of the movie could either help or hurt her. From the okay trailer of A Dangerous Method, Kiera Knightley's performance looks baity and could be the standout of Cronenberg's latest. The last two slots, at this point, are mere speculation. I am going with two recent winners, Kate Winslet and Sandra Bullock, as their projects are pure Oscar bait, and the Academy clearly likes both. But if you take a gander at the rest of the Other Contenders, you will see this is a tight race with lots of talent and baity roles, so the season still has lots of miles left on its tires.
Predicted Nominees:
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2) Kate Winslet - Carnage
3) Jessica Chastain - The Tree of Life
4) Marisa Tomei - Ides of March
5) Chloe Moretz - Hugo OR Mellisa McCarthy - Bridesmaids
1) I think people like Viola Davis a lot, and The Help will be the critical hit of the summer, plus her role seems to good to pass on.
2) Carnage will probably be one of those movies that gets 3-4 acting noms, and Winslet is likely the best bet of all.
3) The acting in The Tree of Life is extremely strong, particularly from Chastain (and Hunter McCracken), though I'm not sure the film will get a Best Picture nod.
4) Tomei is a guess, but I think The Ides of March will be one of the most successful films this year Oscar-wise, and she is always great.
5) I think the rest of the noms are so serious that the academy will pick a lighter performance for the last slot, so McCarthy (who would be totally deserving) or a younger actress Moretz, since young performers have been frequently recognized in the category the past 10 years.
* Even if Bullock is good in Extremely Loud, I don't think she will get in since the academy got some much flack when she won for The Blind Side.
* Although I really like David Cronenberg, I predict A Dangerous Method will be one of the Oscar flops this year. I'm thinking too much cheese and not compelling enough of a story.
* With Meryl Streep and Glen Close firmly in contention this year, I don';t think enough attention will be payed to another legend Redgrave, even if she acts circles around some of the other Supporting Actress nominees.
I forgot about Jessica Chastain! Although I'm not sure of the Academy's reaction to the film, as there is a good chance it just completely gets ignored. I am hoping that A Dangerous Method is good, so maybe Knightley is wishful thinking. In terms of Bullock, I think I am picking her at this point simply because of Stephen Daldry who has a knack for getting his films lots of nominations (deserved or not). And never doubt the power of Vanessa Redgrave, she is after all...well, Vanessa Redgrave. And definitely agree that Tomei is a top contender, even if shes not currently in my five.
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