Wednesday, July 20, 2011

State of the Race - July Predictions: Best Actress

July Predictions
Glenn Close "Albert Nobbs"
Elizabeth Olsen "Martha Marcy May Marlene"
Meryl Streep "The Iron Lady"
Tilda Swinton "We Need to Talk About Kevin"
Michelle Williams "My Week With Marilyn"

Other Contenders - Charlize Theron "Young Adult", Rooney Mara "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo", Kirsten Dunst "Melancholia", Anne Hathaway "One Day", Rachel Weisz "The Whistleblower", Charlotte Rampling "The Eye of the Storm", Jodie Foster "Carnage", Kristen Wiig "Bridesmaids", Juliette Binoche "Certified Copy", Michelle Williams "Take This Waltz", Emma Stone "The Help", Mia Wasikowska "Jane Eyre", Felicity Jones "Like Crazy", Vera Farmiga "Higher Ground", Rachel Harris "Natural Selection", Maria Bello "Beautiful Boy", Rachel McAdams "Midnight in Paris", Andrea Riseborough "W.E."

Commentary - A lot of people are predicting that two veterans could once again have their heyday with two buzzed performances, and at this moment, I am apt to go along with their theory. Both Glenn Close and Meryl Streep have some baity performances (one is playing Margaret Thatcher, the other a man), and both are overdue (one for an Oscar, and one for a third). So expect both to play well with the Academy and be top contenders for the prize. A lot of people are doubting the performance of Michelle Williams as Marilyn Monroe, but she defied the odds last year and got and nod, and hell, she's playing Monroe, a legend. My guess is that if the film is decent, plus her other roles in Meeks Cutoff and Take This Waltz, she is going to have a lot of options this year, and a lot of support overall for another nomination. The last two slots I am giving to film festival favorites. There are some great contenders right below them, namely Charlize Theron and Rooney Mara, but neither of their performances have been seen. So instead I am going with two praised performances, which will only make it if their films get the proper distribution, and audiences are willing to sit through tough movies. Of course I am talking about Academy Award Winner Tilda Swinton, who has been snubbed in recent years since her win, and Elizabeth Olsen, whose performance has made people forget about her older sisters, and pushed her into the discussion for her first Oscar nomination.


  1. Predicted Nominees:
    1) Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady
    2) Glen Close - Alfred Knobs
    3) Martha Marcy May Marlene - Elizabeth Olsen
    4) Michelle Williams - My Week With Marilyn
    5) Kirsten Dunst - Melancholia

    * 100% nominated
    * 90% nominated
    * She looks fantastic in the trailer, and I actually think the movie looks very interesting. If any indie actress gets a nod, it will be her.
    * As long as the movie is decent.
    * I think the academy likes to nominate performers that were previously thought of "not sophisticated enough" but then step up their game for a serious role. (Even if she has had a lot of great performances in a lot of good movies.)
    ** I'm only worried that all of these movies are too small and there will be at least one nomination from a more mainstream film. However, this is the category that most frequently recognizes a lot of lesser seen performances.

  2. If you look at the Other Contenders, there are not a lot of mainstream films mentioned. That doesn't mean that they won't be represented, I just am not sure from which films they will emerge. It seems like a lot of the mainstream films that are either already out, or are coming out will field more top male performers than female ones. So basically, you're right, this category has in the past, and probably will again this year look to smaller indie films.