Sunday, July 17, 2011

Emmy Nominations Analysis: TV Movie/Reality/Variety

Here is the second half of my Emmy nomination analysis, for the remaining big categories:

Best TV Movie/Miniseries
My jaw dropped when I heard The Kennedys announced as a nominee. It dropped even further when I realized it got 10 overall nominations. I know most people thought it was dumped by networks because it was so politically charged, which is probably true. But there could be a more important reason. It simply was not that good. With the exception of a few fine performances, it was uneven, not particualarly well-written, and borderline soap opera. Then Pillars of the Earth got in as well, a shocking twist considering it too was not as well done as other contenders such as Upstairs, Downstairs, Carlos, The Sunset Limited, Luther, and a whole host of others. But really this race comes down to the other four, and in my opinion, Mildred Pierce, with its stunning load of nominations, looks like it could be unbeatable.

Best Actor in a TV Movie/Miniseries
Greg Kinnear and Barry Pepper weren't bad in The Kennedys, but there performances pale in comparison to those of Tommy Lee Jones and Samuel L. Jackson in The Sunset Limited. At least the other four nominees are truly award worthy. While my personal favorite in Laurence Fishburne may be a long shot, I think all four can legitimately win. I used to think that Edgar Ramirez was a lock for a win, but after Carlos was snubbed in the big category, I now wonder if William Hurt, Academy Award winner, and the lead of the highly nominated To Big To Fail could be the real contender for the prize.

Best Actress in a TV Movie/Miniseries
Well at least Katie Holmes didn't get in as well. This category went exactly as I predicted, which makes me happy, as these are five truly deserving performances. I do think its interesting that so many people predicted Hayley Atwell for Pillars of the Earth, and yet the series got in, but she didn't. Just an interesting twist of fate I guess. This category is a wash in terms of the win, because who in their right mind is going to vote against Kate Winslet? The answer is plenty of people, but for many voters, the previous question is their motto in this race.

Best Supporting Actor in a TV Movie/Miniseries
Wilkinson was the one actor who I thought had a shot at getting in, so his inclusion was not surprising, although I did not include him in my predictions. The real surprise here is that the wonderful Brian F. O'Byrne for Mildred Pierce got in along with his co-star Guy Pearce. I loved his performance, but thought that he was simply up against too many big names. When you look at this category it is tough to pick a winner. Many will go for Pearce, and rightfully so. But I actually think we should watch out for James Woods. His character was great, and I think he could be a dark horse.

Best Supporting Actress in TV Movie/Miniseries
If you want to know the real power of Mildred Pierce look no further than this category where it got three nominations. Two were expected, but I am thrilled that Mare Winningham also got in, which was truly deserved. But they will be going up against two acting legends in Maggie Smith and Eileen Atkins, who are both Emmy winners, and both really great this year. If I had to pick right now, I would go with either Smith or maybe Wood for the win.

Best Variety Series
So Conan gets a little wink and a nod from the Emmys. Not surprising, but a nice little tribute. The real shock here is that the Late Show was bumped and that Jimmy Fallon took its spot. I personally don't like either that much, but a little change-up in this category is always nice. The Daily Show sure looks to continue its streak, but SNL managed to get the most nominations of any of these, and the Colbert Report has been lurking in the background for years, so who knows?

Best Reality Show - Competition
So two dancing shows got in this year, but Survivor finally does not outlast the competition and is snubbed. The Amazing Race won for years and years, and then Top Chef took home the prize last year. Both are definitely in the running, as is a rejuviant American Idol.

Best Reality Show
I think this comes down to Kathy Griffin versus Deadliest Catch. Still mad Pawn Stars didn't get in, but beyond those previously mentioned two, I really don't see any of the others winning, especially with Intervention now gone, although watch out for the very popular Hoarders to be a dark horse.

Best Reality Host
Well, Well Cat Deeley finally took out Heidi Klum for a coveted spot. That being said, I have absolutely no idea who will win. Jeff Probst has been the awards only winner, but with Survivor not making the cut for the program category I wonder if his stranglehold is gone. So who gets in? Seacrest could finally win, but so could Bergeron or Keoghan. I'm also disappointed that Padma Lakshmi didn't get in, but I guess two female hosts would have been too much (hint the sarcasm).

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