Will Win - Hugo
Should Win/Could Win - War Horse
Commentary - These categories tend to reward the same film, and only seem to split when the nominations don't match up as well. For me, this means that two Best Picture contenders: War Horse and Hugo. However, a film has not won the Sound Mixing award without at least a CAS nomination, and Hugo just won the CAS, so it is probably the safest bet. Although Academy members may think that War Horse, as a war film, is more applicable.
Will Win - Hugo
Should Win/Could Win - War Horse
Commentary - So War Horse won what is probably the best equivalent to the Oscars at the MPSE last night. However, Hugo also won an award as well though showing that it is well liked, and it has the most steam and buzz going into it, whereas War Horse kind of limped into the nominations, only getting technical nods. If there is a split (which would be nice), then it benefits War Horse, but it is not wise to vote for the split, so I am playing it safe.
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