Will Win - In Darkness (Poland)
Should Win - A Separation (Iran)
Could Win - A Separation or Monsieur Lazhar (Canada)
Commentary - This one is tough, because all precursors point to A Separation, and it is the only one of the five to get a nomination outside of this particular category. An if the odds are correct, then come Oscar night it will win the Foreign-Language Film prize. So then why, as many of you are probably asking at this moment, am I going a different way? Well, first, despite such consensus among precursors, the group that votes on this category seems to always go a different way from the popular consensus. Sometimes it is expected, like 2009's Los Secreto de Sus Ojos over Un Prophet and The White Ribbon, and sometimes it is a complete shock like Departures over, well over any of the other four. So the Academy tends to go its own way in this cateogry. Secondly, they love the Holocaust, and films that are good and talk about that subject matter tend to do well, especially in this category. So while the consensus is A Separation, as it should be, and while there is a good chance I retreat before my final list on Sunday, I am going out on a limb and predicting a huge upset with In Darkness, this year's Holocaust film from Poland.