Will Win - Modern Family
Should Win - Veep or The Big Bang Theory
Could Win - Veep, Orange is the New Black, or The Big Bang Theory
Commentary - In order to take down the juggernaut Modern Family, there need to be a clear winner, and honestly, while there are three real possibilities, none of them seem to be standing out as the one to beat it. Veep had another great season, and finally got a writing nomination, something that is almost essential to winning. And I do think that if anything can take down Modern Family it is Veep. It its a straight up, laughh-out-loud comedy with a great ensemble (basically the formula for winning Best Comedy Series), and has a political twist, which also helps its cause. Speaking of no writing (or directing), The Big Bang Theory once again missed the mark on those accounts. But it is always a threat, as it is the biggest show on television, and reminds me a lot of the last winner to win without either writing or directing, Friends. If voters are looking for an opportunity to reward this show, this year with multiple contenders and no clear front runner could be the one that lands them the top prize. Then there is Orange is the New Black. It is the hot new show, won an impressive amount of Creative Arts Emmys, and has crazy buzz. But here is the sticking point for me. This type of dramedy show has never won this category, despite plenty of nominations for the genre over the last decade. Voters for this category like comedies, they like to laugh, and while Orange is the New Black has its moments, it is not really a comedy, and I think its dramatic parts (which compromise the majority of the series) will cause it to lose. So we come back to Modern Family. It had a much better season than last year's (probably the best season since the first two), is still clearly beloved by this industry, and in a close race, I go with what I know. And what I know is that Emmy voters will have no problem giving Modern Family a fifth Emmy in a row.