Will Win - Mark Ruffalo "The Normal Heart"
Should Win - Billy Bob Thornton "Fargo"
Could Win - Billy Bob Thornton or Martin Freeman "Fargo"
Commentary - Billy Bob Thornton's sly, evil, yet kind of charming character on Fargo was excellent, but I think that he was too subtle for Emmy voters that like their actors loud and with a lot of range. Martin Freeman for Fargo, who is a double nominee this year, probably will affect more Emmy voters, especially because he finally showed a lot of range as an actor. But I think that if they are going with loud and a lot of range, no one fits that bill quite like Mark Ruffalo for The Normal Heart. The film is set to really rack up at this month's Emmys, and he is the emotional center and leader for the film. Plus he is a genuine movie star, and Oscar nominee, therefore fitting into what has become the common winner in these categories particularly (think about last year's winners Michael Douglas, Laura Linney, James Cromwell, and Ellen Burstyn). Movie star, plus emotional heartbreak, plus ranting and raving most likely will equal Mark Ruffalo winning his first Emmy Award.