Will Win - Jesse Tyler Ferguson "Modern Family"
Should Win - Jesse Tyler Ferguson "Modern Family"
Could Win - Tony Hale "Veep", Ty Burrell "Modern Family", or Andre Braugher "Brooklyn Nine-Nine"
Commentary - I have always thought that Jesse Tyler Ferguson was the unsung hero of Modern Family, and I was so thrilled to see him have an incredible amount of material this season to work with, especially the fact that they give him a lot of range this season. I think that, despite the fact that none of the Modern Family guys won last year, this is the year that Jesse Tyler Ferguson finally gets some recognition. But this is not a slam dunk win for him, as there are three guys fighting for that spot including Ty Burrell, who won the SAG Award this year, and is clearly a favorite among voters. I just don't think his tape will match Ferguson's, and he has lost (twice) to his co-star Eric Stonestreet, so there is a precedent there. Tony Hale surprised everyone last year with a win, and his episode this year is a lot better than last year's. But I just don't see it this year. I love Veep, and voters clearly do too, but without his Arrested Development support chipping in, I think that Ferguson's better episode will win the day. The one wild card here is Andre Braugher. He is a beloved television actor, has won several of these here, and his deadpan character is a hoot. But Brooklyn Nine-Nine, like his last series Men of a Certain Age, failed to really register across the board. His tape and his personal popularity though make him a contender to watch for come next Monday.