Will Win - Ricky Gervais "Derek"
Should Win - Louis C.K. "Louie"
Could Win - Jim Parsons "The Big Bang Theory" or William H. Macy "Shameless"
Commentary - Can Jim Parsons win a fourth Emmy for The Big Bang Theory? Of course he can, be he has proven that he can be beaten if there is still competition, and this year two major contenders have the material that rivals Parsons and could stop him from another win. First is William H. Macy. Almost everyone thought he was going to be nominated for Shameless on the Drama side. But it turns out it took a switch to comedy for Macy to finally get some Emmy recognition. His character, the over-the-top, drunk character that he has mastered over the last several seasons is built for the Emmys, and he is a real threat to win. But remember when Ricky Gervais shocked the hell out of everyone and won for Extras a couple of years ago? I am not going to be caught off guard again. He has a knockout episode from Derek, he is beloved by this industry, and he surprised us all with a nomination. I think he surprises again with a win.