Will Win - Mandy Patinkin "Homeland"
Could Win - Jonathan Banks "Breaking Bad", Peter Dinklage "Game of Thrones", or Aaron Paul "Breaking Bad"
Should Win - Jonathan Banks "Breaking Bad"
Commentary - This race is really a toss up between four contenders. As much as I love Jim Carter, I just don't see that happening. And while Bobby Cannavale is an Emmy favorite with two nominations this year, I don't think he has enough to do in his episode of Boardwalk. Peter Dinklage and Aaron Paul are previous winners, and both have decent episodes. Depending on the panel, since these characters are already popular, another win is not out of the realm of possibility. But I think this may come down to two. Jonathan Banks has been on Breaking Bad for a while, but this season he really broke through as a huge character and a huge performance. He was my pick for a long time, but I think that while his episode is good, it is not quite as powerful as one of his competitors. Mandy Patinkin is a television legend, and he knocks it out of the park in this particular episode of Homeland. It is a close race, and really any of these four guys could take this category, a category that has afforded us some surprises over the years. But if voters vote with their hearts, which they often do, Patinkin is the choice.