Will Win - Vera Farmiga "Bate's Motel"
Could Win - Claire Danes "Homeland" or Kerry Washington "Scandal"
Should Win - Washington, Farmiga or Connie Britton "Nashville"
Commentary - I think everyone assumed that Claire Danes would be the frontrunner with Julianna Margulies as a potential spoiler. Well then Margulies was snubbed and there were the surprise inclusions of Vera Farmiga and Connie Britton, and the race got a new shift in the landscape. I honestly thought that that meant that Danes would be the clear winner, with Kerry Washington, who has a lot of great stuff in Scandal and is incredibly popular in Hollywood right now, as the dark horse. And then I set down and actually watched the episodes. I was thrilled at Farmiga's inclusion, but definitely surprised. I was even more surprised when I realized how awesome her episode was in comparison with the rest of her fellow nominees. Danes' episode Q&A is clearly one of the most popular episodes of the year, but I really feel like it is Lewis' show with Danes being out-shined a bit, although she still is stellar. But the pilot of Bate's Motel is the Vera Farmiga show and she knocks it out of the park. If they watch the episodes, which they usually do, then I think it will be hard to pass up Farmiga, who also happens to be an Oscar-nominated movie star which Television Academy members eat up like candy, and I think she is going to pull off the upset of the night.