Will Win - Jim Parsons "The Big Bang Theory"
Could Win - Louis C.K. "Louie", Alec Baldwin "30 Rock", Don Cheadle "House of Lies"
Should Win - Louis C.K. "Louie"
Commentary - Louis C.K.'s final speech of his episode with Parker Posey is the single best moment of any of the six episodes. And it could be the moment that wins him his first acting Emmy. But the rest of the episode leading up to it is his normal style of comedy, which while funny, is also incredibly subtle. That has hurt C.K. in this race in the past, and it could hurt him again this year, despite the fact that Louie has risen in popularty among Television Academy voters with its inclusion in the Comedy Series race. But let's not forget last year's surprise winner Jon Cryer. He won because his episode had him going through a range of emotions in a loud performance, probably the most attempts at comedy of any of the contenders. In most cases, particularly with Emmy panels, the most acting has a better shot at winning. But before I get to my final pick, there are two other guys to watch out for. No one is talking about House of Lies, but Cheadle is a well-respected actor, won the Golden Globe earlier this year, and has an episode that does show some nice range and surprised me in how good Cheadle was, even if the show as a whole is not by favorite. In contrast, Alec Baldwin submitted a terrible episode, but he has won this award several times, and if voters are feeling sentimental enough about 30 Rock, then his episode won't matter than much. But I think that, in terms of Emmy voting, that Parsons has the winning episode. It is certaintly not his best, submission, as the two he won with before were excellent. This one is good, but definitely not his top pick of his Emmy career. That being said he gets to go through a range of emotions, and gets a drunk scene, factors that were prevalent in his first two Emmy-winning submissions. Plus, Jim Parsons is a great guy, an excellent actor, and they clearly like him. All of this will probably add up to another Emmy win for Sheldon.