State of the Race: November Predictions - Best Picture

November Predictions
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo

Midnight in Paris

Moneyball

War Horse

Other Contenders - Young Adult, The Tree of Life, The Ides of March, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, J. Edgar, Rango, My Week With Marilyn, We Bought a Zoo, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, Shame, Martha Marcy May Marlene, Take Shelter, The Adventures of Tintin,  A Dangerous Method, Super 8

Commentary - Well, I held out on Young Adult for as long as I could, but unless it gets some big critical boosts, I think it will be on the outside looking in this year. A shame to say the least. That being said, I am currently going with 8 nominees, thinking that that will be the maximum number this year (and any subsequent years with this new system). War Horse has finally been screened, and while some cynical critics will be against it, but all indicators suggest that the Academy will go head over heels for it. Extremely Loud is the last big film (Dragon Tattoo is being screened today by NYFCC), to be screened by any critics, and I will not doubt Stephen Daldry until the nominations are announced (I learned my lesson with The Reader). Optimism seems to be a big hit this year (See Award Daily article), and just looking at feel-good films like The Help, The Artist, and Moneyball all still holding steady. Another feel-good movie has shot up the rankings, as Hugo's critical response means it could be a huge factor in this year's race. The Descendants is heartbreaking and funny, and could be this year's critical favorite, along the The Artist. Finally, I am sticking with Midnight in Paris, as it seems to a film that has not been quickly forgotten among Academy members.