Friday, November 25, 2011

State of the Race: November Predictions - Best Actress

November Predictions
Glenn Close "Albert Nobbs"
Viola Davis "The Help"
Meryl Streep "The Iron Lady"
Charlize Theron "Young Adult"
Michelle Williams "My Week With Marilyn"

Other Contenders - Rooney Mara "The Girl With a Dragon Tattoo", Elizabeth Olsen "Martha Marcy May Marlene", Felicity Jones "Like Crazy", Tilda Swinton "We Need to Talk About Kevin", Olivia Colman "Tyrannosaur", Kirsten Dunst "Melancholia", Kiera Knightley "A Dangerous Method",  Vera Farmiga "Higher Ground", Emily Watson "Oranges and Sunshine", Kristen Scott Thomas "Sarah's Key", Kirsten Wiig "Bridemaids", Mia Wasikowska "Jane Eyre", Emma Stone "The Help"

Commentary - In my opinion there are four ladies that seem to be soldifying their nominations, one that is getting there, and a handful of young star waiting in the wings. Viola Davis is still out front, but the incredible Meryl Streep and Michelle Williams are hot on her heels. All three are great in their respective roles, but Davis has a few things going for her that the other two do not. The Help is a contender for Best Picture, and has other incredible performances out there. With Streep and Williams, they may have other cast members in the mix, but really it is mostly about their two performances, and neither of their films live up to their performances. The popularity of The Help, may be the push Davis needs to win the Oscar. Glenn Close is also still in this, but her film is really unpopular as a whole, and I think of all these contenders, she is most vulnerable. Charlize Theron is quickly landing on lists, as Young Adult gets good reviews. Plus I think people are underestimating the film, and if it hits big, she will solidfy her spot on this list. But she and Close need to watch out for the newcomers, as Rooney Mara, Elizabeth Olsen, and Felicity Jones all could grab a Jennifer Lawrence, Gabourey Sidibe, or Carey Mulligan-esque spot. Also watch out for Tilda Swinton. She could be a critical favorite, and as more people see her movie, more were realize just how good she is.  

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