Wednesday, January 3, 2018

The Oscar Narrative: Pre-Guild Nomination Predictions - Best Picture

Pre-Guild Nomination Predictions
The Big Sick
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Other Contenders - The Florida Project, Phantom Thread, All the Money in the World, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Blade Runner 2049, Wonder Woman, Logan, I, Tonya, The Disaster Artist, Coco

Commentary - Before you all start, I know good and well that there will not be a full slate of ten nominees. But I think that if there are ten, these films are those ten. I think a few films are locks: Lady Bird, Get Out, Three Billboards, Shape of Water. I think The Post and Dunkirk will have enough support to also make the cut. There are six nominees. Call Me By Your Name felt like a lot, but recently has under-performed. I still think it is in, but in a much weaker position than a few months ago. That is seven. The last three slots are interchangeable. Darkest Hour will appease the older members of the Academy, Netflix is pushing Mudbound hard, and The Big Sick is the loveable little film that could. Two of those three will probably take the last two slots (or one of three if this is an eight film year). I know what you are thinking: what about The Florida Project? Unless Sean Baker can get some love in Directing, I just don't see how this film can build a Best Picture nomination. Willem Dafoe will be the only guaranteed nod. The Blind Side and Extremely Loud did it, but they were shockers at the finish line. I just think this film is a critics pick that will be drowned out in the Academy's voting process. That being said, a PGA nod will bring it back to life. Also watch out for Phantom Thread, All the Money in the World, and the big guns like Star Wars, Wonder Woman, Logan, Blade Runner, and Coco. You never know if this is the year the big guys break through.

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