Final Nomination Predictions
Mary J. Blige "Mudbound"
Hong Chau "Downsizing"
Allison Janney "I, Tonya"
Laurie Metcalf "Lady Bird"
Octavia Spencer "The Shape of Water"
Other Contenders - Holly Hunter "The Big Sick", Lesley Manville "Phantom Thread", Kristin Scott Thomas "Darkest Hour", Tiffany Haddish "Girls Trip"
Commentary - BAFTA nominated two of their own in Lesley Manville and Kristin Scott Thomas. But Manville was nominated for Another Year and missed out, and Kristin Scott Thomas has not gotten an Oscar nomination since 1996, and this is her third BAFTA Nomination since then, fifth overall. I think these are British favorites that will not cross over. But the Octavia Spencer's nomination is interesting. I still cannot believe she missed at SAG, but the Brits going for her, after not nominating her for Hidden Figures last year is interesting to me. I think as Shape of Water is heating up lately, the buzz for her has grown stronger. This means one of the five slots at SAG is probably going to turn. The only really safe bets are Janney and Metcalf to be honest. A lot of folks think it is Hong Chau because Downsizing has not really been a hit through awards season. But that makes me think she is definitely in, because she is so strong she can overcome a film that voters don't like overall, and still get Globe and SAG nominations. Unfortunately, I think it is Holly Hunter that is going to be squeezed out. Both she and Blige missed out at BAFTA, but I think Hunter in the more comedic role will miss out on Blige's more powerhouse-type performance. I could also see both getting in and SAG being 5/5. This category, which seems to be pretty settles just a few weeks ago, is suddenly a real horse-race to the final five, and I have this sneaking suspicion that there will be a surprise in this category come Tuesday morning.