Friday, January 19, 2018

The Oscar Narrative: Final Nomination Predictions - Best Actress

Final Nomination Predictions
Sally Hawkins "The Shape of Water"
Frances McDormand "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
Margot Robbie "I, Tonya"
Saoirse Ronan "Lady Bird"
Meryl Streep "The Post"

Other Contenders - Jessica Chastain "Molly's Game", Judi Dench "Victoria and Abdul", Annette Bening "Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool", Michelle Williams "All the Money in the World"

Commentary - So four of these are locked and loaded with SAG, Golden Globe, BAFTA, and Critics Choice nods: Hawkins, McDormand, Ronan, and Robbie. The final slot, I thought, was long since decided. But Meryl Streep missed out at SAG and BAFTA, and something just tells me that this is off. I still have her in, because I don't think there is a clear fifth slot. Annette Bening got in at SAG, but I think that film is playing better with the Brits than over here stateside. Judi Dench got the SAG, but her own folks at BAFTA passed her over, which makes me wonder if she is a strong as we think. Michelle Williams could ride the late All the Money in the World wave. But I think that if anyone is going to take down Dame Streep, it is previous nominee Jessica Chastain. Molly's Game is on the cusp of a surprise Best Picture nomination, her performance is one of the best parts about the film, and she is a beloved industry vet at this point. But it is Meryl Streep, so I don't bet against her.

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