Tuesday, January 2, 2018

The Oscar Narrative: Pre-Guild Nomination Predictions - Best Actor

Pre-Guild Nomination Predictions
Timothee Chalamet "Call Me By Your Name"
Daniel Day-Lewis "Phantom Thread"
Daniel Kaluuya "Get Out"
Gary Oldman "Darkest Hour"
Denzel Washington "Roman J. Israel, Esq."

Other Contenders - James Franco "The Disaster Artist", Tom Hanks "The Post", Jake Gyllenhaal "Stronger", Andrew Garfield "Breathe", Christian Bale "Hostiles", Ansel Elgort "Baby Driver"

Commentary - It's funny how things come full circle. About a month ago, Timothee Chalamet was making a strong running for this prize. He still may yet challenge the veterans in this category, but Call Me By Your Name hit some snags with a less-than-expected Globes showing, and missing all but Chalamet, a surprisingly low nomination count. Chalamet will receive his first, of what I assume will be many Oscar nominations in his career, but I know longer think he can win. I think Gary Oldman, who started off this season on top, will end up finishing that way. As the regional awards poured in, Chalamet lost some steam, and Oldman even bested some of the critical favorites. I just think that as the guilds reign in, that the beloved, overdue veteran, in the role of a lifetime, will overtake the upstart. Beyond those two, the nominations get complicated. Daniel Day-Lewis missed SAG, but it wasn't widely seen. I can't imagine Oscar voters turning down a supposedly final nomination for the most rewarded actor, in terms of Oscars, of our time. So I am still surprised to see the rise of Denzel Washington this season. I can't help but think that there is just a lot of good will left over from his Fences season last year. Because the film, Roman J. Israel, Esq. has no heat this season, and yet a SAG and Globe nod later, and he is still in this race. He is one of the greatest actors of all time, and is the only reason to see that movie. I think that he could get in. He will not get a BAFTA nod, because he never has, but he could still take a slot here. The final slot, right now, seems to be between James Franco and Daniel Kaluuya. Hanks should be in this race, but he has missed so many times lately, and the once potent contenders of Garfield and Gyllenhaal have faded from memory. Franco seems like the obvious choice, but, for right now at least, I am putting Kaluuya in. Of the two films, Get Out is the phenomenon, and is a major Best Picture contender. If it can't get Kaluuya in after a SAG and Globe nod, then it is not as strong as we think. Plus, zero acting nods for the film dooms it in the Oscar race. I bet on Kaluuya getting in and keeping it in the running.

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