Best Picture - Drama
Will Win - The Shape of Water
Could Win - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should Win - Dunkirk or Three Billboards
Commentary - The Shape of Water scored the most nominations, is beloved by these HFPA voters, and has the momentum going in its favor. But watch out for Three Billboards. It has been a surprise contender all year, and rumor has it that these voters really love the film.
Best Picture - Comedy/Musical
Will Win - Lady Bird
Could Win - Get Out or I, Tonya
Should Win - Lady Bird
Commentary - Lady Bird is the most nomination of this group, and the only film to get either a writing or directing nod. I expect it to win here. Get Out has been on a role, but voters clearly weren't as keen on it as other critics groups.
Best Actor - Drama
Will Win - Gary Oldman "Darkest Hour"
Could Win - Timothee Chalamet "Call Me By Your Name"
Should Win - Oldman
Commentary - Oldman has some personal issues, like his conservative nature and his previous issues with the HFPA. But these voters like to affect the Oscar race, and I think that in the end that Oldman will overtake Chalamet. Globe voters will most likely respond to the race and buzz and reward Oldman. But don't be surprised if young Chalamet takes the stage. The film is up for Best Picture, and it makes the Globes look young and refreshing, something they love.
Best Actress - Drama
Will Win - Frances McDormand "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
Could Win - Sally Hawkins "The Shape of Water" or Meryl Streep "The Post"
Should Win - McDormand
Commentary - They love this film, McDormand is a beloved veteran, and the combination should equal a great moment when she wins the Globe. But Hawkins could ride a Shape of Water wave, and you should never ever discount Meryl Streep at the Globes.
Best Actor - Comedy/Musical
Will Win - James Franco "The Disaster Artist"
Could Win - Daniel Kaluuya "Get Out" and Hugh Jackman "The Greatest Showman"
Should Win - Franco
Kaluuya would be a way to reward Get Out, and Jackman in a musical has ended in Globe glory before. But Franco is apparently a shoo-in with these voters, as they love him and they love the film.
Best Actress - Comedy/Musical
Will Win - Saoirse Ronan "Lady Bird"
Could Win - Margot Robbie "I, Tonya" or Judi Dench "Victoria and Abdul"
Should Win - Ronan
Robbie is dynamite and Dench is a legend, but I think that this is Ronan's to lose, and she deserves this.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win - Willem Dafoe "The Florida Project"
Could Win - Sam Rockwell "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri" or Christopher Plummer "All the Money in the World"
Should Win - Rockwell
Commentary - I still think Rockwell could ride the love for Three Billboards win, and a Plummer win would be symbolic. If Dafoe is the front runner we think he is, he will win here. But it is not the lock most folks think it is.
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win - Laurie Metcalf "Lady Bird"
Could Win - Allison Janney "I, Tonya"
Should Win - Either Janney or Metcalf
Commentary - Janney and Metcalf have been fighting for the top slot for months now. I think Metcalf has the clearer path to Oscar victory, but if Janney makes a stand here, then the race for the finish line heats up.
Will Win - Guillermo Del Toro "The Shape of Water"
Could Win - Christopher Nolan "Dunkirk" or Martin McDonagh "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
Should Win - Nolan
Commentary - Del Toro wins for their favorite film of the year, and his visionary eye. But Nolan and McDonagh could surprise.
Will Win - Greta Gerwig "Lady Bird"
Could Win - Martin McDonagh "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
Should Win - Lady Bird
Commentary - In this battle between two of their favorite scripts, I think they will want to reward the young talent that is Gerwig.
Rest of Film Predictions
Best Animated Feature - Coco
Best Foreign Language Film - First They Killed My Father
Best Original Score - Alexandre Desplat "The Shape of Water"
Best Original Song - Coco - Remember Me
Best Drama Series - The Handmaid's Tale
Best Comedy/Musical Series - The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Best Actor in a Drama Series - Jason Bateman "Ozark"
Best Actress in a Drama Series - Elisabeth Moss "The Handmaid's Tale"
Best Actor in a Comedy/Musical Series - Aziz Ansari "Master of None"
Best Actress in a Comedy/Musical Series - Rachel Brosnahan "The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel"
Best TV Movie/Limited Series - Big Little Lies
Best Actor in a TV Movie/Limited Series - Robert DeNiro "The Wizard of Lies"
Best Actress in a TV Movie/Limited Series - Nicole Kidman "Big Little Lies"
Best Supporting Actor - David Harbour "Stranger Things"
Best Supporting Actress - Laura Dern "Big Little Lies"