Final Nomination Predictions
Call Me By Your Name
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Other Contenders - The Big Sick, Mudbound, Molly's Game, Wonder Woman, The Florida Project, Phantom Thread, Blade Runner 2049, Coco, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Coco, Logan
Commentary - I am predicting nine nominees, and the last couple of slots are giving me a lot of pause. I feel like six of them are safe: Call Me By Your Name, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, and Three Billboards. The Post is in a shaky seventh position. It has just not done that well on the guild circuit. But that pedigree and it hitting a larger box office right at the end of Oscar voting probably pushed it over the top. The last slot or two really are tricky. I have had The Big Sick in the running for months now, but I just think that it is going to be pushed out. Darkest Hour really had a great showing at BAFTA, which is expected, but I feel like British and older voters are going to put it high on their list. Finally, a surprise is going to happen tomorrow morning, or at least I think so. I think I, Tonya, which has over-performed everywhere, will outperform some of its competition and make the cut. But I am looking at Mudbound, Molly's Game, Wonder Woman, and The Florida Project to break through. A lot of folks think the passion for The Florida Project, like Beasts of the Southern Wild a few years ago. It could break through, but Beasts had at least a PGA nomination, and The Florida Project has got nothing, I mean nothing outside Willem Dafoe, in any of the major awards since the critics phase in December. That makes me think that it was more of a critics film than an Academy one.