Monday, January 22, 2018

The Oscar Narrative: Final Nomination Predictions - Best Picture

Final Nomination Predictions
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Get Out
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Other Contenders - The Big Sick, Mudbound, Molly's Game, Wonder Woman, The Florida Project, Phantom Thread, Blade Runner 2049, Coco, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Coco, Logan

Commentary - I am predicting nine nominees, and the last couple of slots are giving me a lot of pause. I feel like six of them are safe: Call Me By Your Name, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, and Three Billboards. The Post is in a shaky seventh position. It has just not done that well on the guild circuit. But that pedigree and it hitting a larger box office right at the end of Oscar voting probably pushed it over the top. The last slot or two really are tricky. I have had The Big Sick in the running for months now, but I just think that it is going to be pushed out. Darkest Hour really had a great showing at BAFTA, which is expected, but I feel like British and older voters are going to put it high on their list. Finally, a surprise is going to happen tomorrow morning, or at least I think so. I think I, Tonya, which has over-performed everywhere, will outperform some of its competition and make the cut. But I am looking at Mudbound, Molly's Game, Wonder Woman, and The Florida Project to break through. A lot of folks think the passion for The Florida Project, like Beasts of the Southern Wild a few years ago. It could break through, but Beasts had at least a PGA nomination, and The Florida Project has got nothing, I mean nothing outside Willem Dafoe, in any of the major awards since the critics phase in December. That makes me think that it was more of a critics film than an Academy one.

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