Monday, January 15, 2018

The Oscar Narrative: Final Nomination Predictions - Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing and Production Design

Best Cinematography
Roger Deakins "Blade Runner 2049"
Bruno Delbonnel "Darkest Hour"
Hoyte Van Hoytema "Dunkirk"
Rachel Morrison "Mudbound"
Dan Laustsen "The Shape of Water"

Other Contenders - Ben Davis "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri", Sayombhu Mukdeeprom "Call Me By Your Name", Janusz Kaminski "The Post", Masanobu Takayanagi "Hostiles"

Commentary - So I am sticking with the five ASC nominees this year, but, I could easily see Three Billboards taking the last slot like it did at BAFTA. The nominee that would be replaced would be Rachel Morrison, but I think Mudbound is more well-liked here stateside, and the fact that this is the year of the woman might be weighing heavily on voters' minds. The other four, Delbonnel, Deakins, Hoytema, and Laustsen should be pretty safe. I also think that Mukdeeprom and Kaminski should be discounted for excellent work.

Best Costume Design
Beauty and the Beast
Murder on the Orient Express
The Greatest Showman
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water

Other Contenders - Darkest Hour, I Tonya, Lady Bird, Victoria and Abdul, The Post, Dunkirk, Wonder Woman, Wonderstruck, Blade Runner 2049, Thor: Ragnarok, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Commentary - I try to remember with this category that more is better, which is why Darkest Hour made its way out. It is basically just guys in suits. Same with The Post and Dunkirk. Phantom Thread is about fashion, Beauty and the Beast, The Greatest Showman, and Murder on the Orient Express all have flashy period costumes. Finally, The Shape of Water will probably ride its technical categories wave. But I could easily see it missing out for something like Victoria and Abdul.

Best Film Editing
Baby Driver
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Other Contenders -  Blade Runner 2049, Get Out, The Post, Lady Bird, Molly's Game, Mudbound, The Florida Project, Call Me By Your Name, Wonder Woman, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Darkest Hour

Commentary - Dunkirk is in, so is The Shape of Water. Three Billboards also feels safe Beyond that, I am completely confused. Blade Runner and Star Wars seem like easy picks, and Get Out and Lady Bird need this badly to beat Three Billboards in Best Picture. Beyond that I don't know. I am going with Baby Driver, who has the Eddie and BAFTA, and I, Tonya, which really relies on its editing. But that leaves out the four mentioned before, The Post and Molly's Game, which feels wrong. This is one I will be looking for on nomination day, because I think it will tell us a lot about the overall state of the race. 

Best Production Design
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
The Post
The Shape of Water

Other Contenders - Dunkirk, Murder on the Orient Express, Phantom Thread, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, The Greatest Showman, Victoria and Abdul, Wonderstruck

Commentary - Beauty and the Beast, Darkest Hour, and The Shape of Water feel like locks. I also think Blade Runner 2049 is pretty safe as the Academy has embraced the mixture of production design with visual effects. The last slot is causing issues. Murder on the Orient Express, The Greatest Showman, Victoria and Abdul, and Phantom Thread feel like easy picks, Dunkirk has a lot, but could miss because so much of it is filmed outside. Finally, Star Wars, which has never managed a nomination here in all of its films, should be in consideration for this, and its ADG nomination doesn't hurt. Instead, I am going with two-time Oscar winner Rick Carter and The Post. He got in for War Horse and won for Lincoln, so he seems to be a favorite of this branch. Also Spielberg period pieces tend to make the cut.

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