Will Win - Neil Patrick Harris "Hedwig and the Angry Inch"
Could Win - Jefferson Mays "Gentleman's Guide to Murder"
Commentary - Even if Hedwig and the Angry Inch had turned out less-than-stellar, Neil Patrick Harris would probably still be in the running for the Tony. He is so popular among voters, especially after being one of the best hosts in recent memory of any awards show. But Hedwig and the Angry Inch provides plenty of flash and substance for any actor, and reviews suggest that he is freaking magnificent. That is not to say that he is unbeatable (just ask Tom Hanks). If A Gentleman's Guide to Murder racks up as much as many expect it to do, then Jefferson Mays is not to be discounted. If there is an upset brewing (something I don't really think is happening, but I'm covering my tracks), then Mays could be the dark horse.