Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win/Should Win - John Ridley "12 Years a Slave"
Could Win - Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope "Philomena"
Commentary - Since the best of the bunch Before Midnight is not nominated, then 12 Years a Slave is definitely the clear number two in terms of quality, and will most likely win, especially if the film does as well as expected. But a little film called Philomena could crash the party with their homegrown talent, and clearly a lot of support.
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win - David O. Russell and Eric Warren Singer "American Hustle"
Could Win - Woody Allen "Blue Jasmine" or Bob Nelson "Nebraska"
Should Win - Bob Nelson "Nebraska"
Commentary - Without Spike Jonze nominated here, I think the American Hustle team will walk away with this one easily. Let's remind ourselves that Russell won here last year for Silver Linings Playbook, and that film was clearly not as well liked as Hustle. And once again, the best of the bunch, Nebraska, will walk away without the gold.
Best Animated Feature Film
Will Win/Should Win - Frozen
Could Win - Neither of the other two.
Commentary - If one of those other films beats the clearly superior Frozen, something is wrong with the world.
Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win - The Great Beauty
Could Win - Blue is the Warmest Color
Should Win - Wadjda
Commentary - The brilliant Saudi Arabian entry Wadjda did not make the Oscar cut, but I'm glad, even though it will not win here, that BAFTA did not make the same mistake. But I think that this is a two-way race. The luster for Blue has faded, so I think that the Italian entry, The Great Beauty will repeat its Globe win here, and could be a tough competitor at the Oscars in a few weeks.
Best Documentary Feature
Will Win - The Act of Killing
Could Win - We Steal Secrets: The Story of WikiLeaks or Blackfish
Should Win - Tim's Vermeer
Commentary - The best doc of the year Stories We Tell, missed here and at the Oscars, which is a real shame. I personally loved Tim's Vermeer, but this is probably between The Act of Killing, We Steal Secrets, with Blackfish as the dark horse. I think Act of Killing takes the prize.