Will Win - Chiwetel Ejiofor "12 Years a Slave"
Could Win - Leonardo DiCaprio "The Wolf of Wall Street"
Should Win - Bruce Dern "Nebraska"
Commentary - Chiwetel Ejiofor is the obvious choice, the obvious front runner, which makes me nervous. I think that Leonardo DiCaprio could win an Oscar this year, as the last minute for campaigning for Wolf has been ridiculous. If he can pull an upset win here, it is proof that the campaign has worked, and he could eclipse McConaughey and Ejiofor.
Will Win - Cate Blanchett "Blue Jasmine"
Could Win - Judi Dench "Philomena" or Amy Adams "American Hustle"
Should Win - Adams or Sandra Bullock "Gravity"
Commentary - Say what you will about the whole Woody Allen situation (I'm keeping my nose out of it), but the fact that something like that could derail Cate Blanchett's Oscar hopes is simply a travesty. I don't think it will matter in the end, as BAFTA will probably only solidify her front-runner status. If there are any spoilers, I think its Dench (British royalty), and Adams (late-breaking entry). But it looks like it is Blanchett all the way.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win - Michael Fassbender "12 Years a Slave"
Could Win - Matt Damon "Behind the Candelabra", Bradley Cooper "American Hustle", or Barkhad Abdi "Captain Phillips"
Should Win - Matt Damon "Behind the Candelabra"
Commentary - Without Leto here, this race seems like a bit of a mess. The British factor most likely means Michael Fassbender will win a well-deserved BAFTA. This also probably means that Leto wins the Oscar, because stateside, Fassbender's absence will prevent an Oscar win. But if Cooper or Abdi breakthrough with a win here, it could mean a surprising race at the Oscars, particularly Cooper. For the record, after being in his co-star's shadow all year, it would be nice to see Matt Damon get some love for his incredible performance in Behind the Candelabra.
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win/Should Win - Lupita Nyong'o "12 Years a Slave"
Could Win - Jennifer Lawrence "American Hustle"
Commentary - Lawrence won the Globe and Lupita won the SAG, this race feels like the tiebreaker. I see Lupita's raw performance impressing here more than Lawrence's flashy, but a win here for either puts them on path to an Oscar.