Best Picture - Drama
Will Win - A Star is Born
Could Win - Bohemian Rhapsody or Black Panther
Should Win - Black Panther or BlacKkKlansman
Commentary - A Star is Born is going to try to maintain its lead in the Oscar race, and I think Globe voters will give them that momentum. Bohemian Rhapsody is apparently loved by these voters, but I think even they know that it would not look good in time to give it this award. Black Panther and BlacKkKlansman both did well with Globe voters, and would be well deserved, and bold, choices for this group, but this is A Star is Born's to lose.
Best Picture - Comedy/Musical
Will Win - Green Book
Could Win - Mary Poppins Returns, The Favourite, or Vice
Should Win - Mary Poppins Returns or Vice
Commentary - This is an interesting four-way race, that really won't be decided until the envelope open. As you will see below, there is a good chance that all four take home at least one trophy. Of the bunch, I feel like voters will settle around Green Book. Vice has proven divisive, and The Favourite might be a little too quirky. The real dark horse here is Mary Poppins. In the past Globes voters have picked a musical they like over the bigger Oscar contender (Les Miserable over Silver Linings Playbook, Sweeney Todd over Juno, Dreamgirls over Little Miss Sunshine, Evita over Fargo/Jerry Maguire). Mary Poppins could sneak in as the one musical in a group of comedies.
Best Actor - Drama
Will Win - Rami Malek "Bohemian Rhapsody"
Could Win - Bradley Cooper "A Star is Born"
Should Win - Washington or Cooper
Commentary - Bohemian Rhapsody is beloved by these voters, and I would compare it to The Blind Side. A film with mediocre reviews that connects with audiences, mostly due to an incredible lead performance at its center. I think they want to reward this film. The only place that they can do that is here or Best Picture. Giving Malek the Globe is a way to give the film something, but do it in a way that won't embarrass the voters.
Best Actress - Drama
Will Win - Lady Gaga "A Star is Born"
Could Win - Glenn Close "The Wife"
Should Win - Melissa McCarthy
Commentary - I would love to see McCarthy upset here, but I have this feeling it is between Gaga and Close. Gaga is the star, has won a Golden Globe recently for American Horror Story, and let's face it, it is just the type of performance that Globes voters love.
Best Actor - Comedy/Musical
Will Win - Christian Bale "Vice"
Could Win - Viggo Mortensen "Green Book" or Lin-Manuel Miranda "Mary Poppins Returns"
Should Win - Bale
Commentary - Mortensen could win if Green Book is more popular than we thought. But I know that HFPA voters loved Vice. Like Bohemian Rhapsody, the mixed reviews might keep it from Picture, but no one can deny the transformative performance of Christian Bale. I think he wins.
Best Actress - Comedy/Musical
Will Win - Emily Blunt "Mary Poppins Returns"
Could Win - Olivia Colman "The Favourite"
Should Win - Blunt or Colman
Commentary - An incredibly close race, most folks think Colman is winning. It is a smart pick. She is beloved by the HFPA and gives a stunning performance. But I think that Blunt is going to upset. She is also equally marvelous in her film, has the musical component, and has had two big films this year. She is the genuine movie star, and an HFPA favorite as well. In a close race, I'm going with Blunt.
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win - Amy Adams "Vice"
Could Win - Regina King "If Beale Street Could Talk" or Rachel Weisz "The Favourite"
Should Win - King or Adams
Commentary - Word on the street is that Rachel Weisz, who has always been a favorite of these voters, is a potential upset here. We also know that Regina King has been the critical favorite of the year. But I think Adams will upset. With the SAG probably locked at this point, and King's chances starting to fade overall, Globe voters might want to reward someone they think will be the ultimate champion. It may end up being Adams year finally, and this could start her journey to Oscar.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win - Mahershala Ali "Green Book"
Could Win - Richard E. Grant "Can You Ever Forgive Me?"
Should Win - Grant
Commentary - Grant is the best here, and could rebound at BAFTA and SAG, but I think that Globe voters like Green Book, and they want to recognize it in more than just Best Picture. Plus Ali has become a huge star, and has True Detective premiering soon. All of this gives me a hunch that Globe voters will respond in kind and give him a win. Plus, he lost the Globe for Moonlight, so this could be a makeup win for him.
Best Director - Alfonso Cuaron "Roma"
Best Screenplay - Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara "The Favourite"
Best Animated Film - Incredibles 2
Best Foreign Language Film - Roma
Best Score - Marc Shaiman "Mary Poppins Returns"
Best Original Song - A Star is Born - Shallow