Maggie O'Farrell and Chloe Zhao "Hamnet"
Park Chan-wook, Lee Kyoung-mi, and Jahyee Lee "No Other Choice"
Paul Thomas Anderson "One Battle After Another"
Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar "Train Dreams"
Rian Johnson "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Story"
Other Contenders - Will Tracy "Bugonia", Guillermo del Toro "Frankenstein", Dana Fox and Winnie Holzman "Wicked: For Good", Craig Brewer "Song Sung Blue", Holly Gent and Vincent Palmo "Nouvelle Vague", Harry Lighton "Pillion", Nia DeCosta "Hedda", James Cameron, Rick Jaffa, and Amanda Silver "Avatar: Fire & Ash", Scott Cooper "Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere"
Commentary - I have not changed this one since my post-festival predictions. Bugonia is probably the safer choice for the fifth slot, but I just need to see some love from the guilds, because I think it might be not be voters cup of tea. Plus, after the longlists were released for the Critics Choice, there was a surprising amount of love for No Other Choice. I think it could be a stealth Oscar contender. Also, Frankenstein has moved up as its chances rise.
Best Original Screenplay
Jafar Panahi "It Was Just an Accident"
Noah Baumbach and Emily Mortimer "Jay Kelly"
Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie "Marty Supreme"
Joachim Trier "Sentimental Value"
Ryan Cooler "Sinners"
Other Contenders - Will Arnett, Mark Chappell and Bradley Cooper "Is This Thing On?", Kleber Mendonça Filho "The Secret Agent", Zach Cregger "Weapons", Robert Kaplow "Blue Moon", Brady Corbert and Mona Fastvold "The Testament of Ann Lee", Eva Victor "Sorry, Baby", Hikari "Rental
Commentary - With A House of Dynamite's chances falling, I moved back in Jay Kelly. Despite its mixed reception, it still clearly has a lot of support, and its subject matter might save its Oscar chances. Other than that, the other four have not moved.
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