Thursday, January 17, 2019

The Oscar Narrative: Final Nomination Predictions - Best Adapted and Original Screenplay

Best Adapted Screenplay
Joe Robert Cole and Ryan Coogler "Black Panther"
David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel, Kevin Willmott, and Spike Lee "BlacKkKlansman"
Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty "Can You Ever Forgive Me?"
Barry Jenkins "If Beale Street Could Talk"
Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, and Will Fetters "A Star is Born"

Other Contenders - Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini "Leave No Trace", Josh Singer "First Man", Armando Iannucci, David Schneider, Ian Martin and Peter Fellows "The Death of Stalin", Peter Chiarelli and Adele Lim "Crazy Rich Asians"

Commentary - I thought the WGA five was pretty much it. Then BAFTA threw in First Man (which should be in this race), and then the Scripter snubbed BlacKkKlansman and Black Panther for Leave no Trace and The Death of Stalin. The Scripter is always so reliable, but I find it hard to believe Oscar voters would snub BlacKkKlansman. I could see then snubbing Black Panther, as it continues to slip after its mid-December romp through the precursors. I could see them snubbing A Star is Born, because its strength is not in its screenplay. I am sticking with these five. I think Can You Ever Forgive Me? and If Beale Street Could Talk are locked and loaded based on precursors (this is interesting because neither is a slam-dunk Best Picture contender). The other slots are up in the air. I am expecting some surprises come Tuesday.

Best Original Screenplay
Bo Burnham "Eighth Grade"
Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara "The Favourite"
Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, and Peter Farrelly "Green Book"
Alfonso Cuaron "Roma"
Adam McKay "Vice"

Other Contenders - Bryan Woods, Scott Beck, and John Krasinski "A Quiet Place", Pawel Pawlikowski and Janusz Glowacki "Cold War", Paul Schrader "First Reformed"

Commentary - So, we know that one of the WGA slots (at least one), is going to The Favourite. My guess is that A Quiet Place is the one that gets left off. Green Book, Roma, and Vice, along with The Favourite are good to go. Eighth Grade is definitely vulnerable, but I think writers will appreciate this more than A Quiet Place, and it has won a lot of screenplay awards. Also look out for Cold War, which got the BAFTA nod, and is fantastic. Finally, a lot of folks are still banking on First Reformed. No WGA, No BAFTA, no Globe. It did win the Critics Choice, which is nice, but so far this industry has completely ignored this film.

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