If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star is Born
Other Contenders - Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Widows, Mary Queen of Scots, Leave No Trace, Boy Erased, Beautiful Boy, Mary Poppins Returns, The Hate U Give, Mid90s, The Front Runner, 22 July, On the Basis of Sex, Welcome to Marwen, Hereditary, A Quiet Place, Eighth Grade, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, At Eternity's Gate, Crazy Rich Asians, Old Man and a Gun, Tully, The Rider, Isle of Dogs, Incredibles 2, The Miseducation of Cameron Post, The Wife, Mission: Impossible - Fallout, Ben is Back, The Other Side of the Wind, Lean on Pete, Ready Player One
Commentary - This race is starting to shape up. There are a few question marks still left. We have not seen Vice or The Mule, although with their pedigree I am including both as placeholders. We still also ned to see Mary, Queen of Scots, Mary Poppins Returns, and On the Basis of Sex. If Vice and The Mule don't pan out, I think that the next two in line are Can You Ever Forgive Me and Widows. That makes twelve that I think are in this race for 8, 9, or 10 slots. Right now I am predicting 10, so the other eight are known entities. I don't think BlacKkKlansman is going to be as big as some folks do, but the buzz has stayed strong, and I am keeping it in for now. We know First Man, A Star is Born, Green Book, and Roma are at the top of the heap, and even though I still think there will be detractor,s, right now it feels like The Favourite is safe. If Beale Street Could Talk might not be as big as Moonlight, but I think voters will swoon for its romance. Finally, I still have Black Panther. All of the hype, all of the potential controversy if it doesn't make it, makes me think it will continue to be on voters' minds throughout the Fall. Other than those twelve, I am going to see some precursors (or great premieres), for me to think that they have a shot at breaking through. It is still early folks, and really anything can happen. Tomorrow, the Gotham Nods come out, and the race really begins. Who will come out on top? As always, we'll just have to wait and see, because that is the Oscar game: waiting to see how the pieces of the puzzle, or the threads of the narrative fall together. Here we go...