Saturday, January 19, 2019

The Oscar Narrative: Final Nomination Predictions - Best Actress

Final Nomination Preditions
Emily Blunt "Mary Poppins Returns"
Glenn Close "The Wife"
Olivia Colman "The Favourite"
Lady Gaga "A Star is Born"
Melissa McCarthy "Can You Ever Forgive Me?"

Other Contenders - Viola Davis "Widows", Yalitza Aparicio "Roma", Joanna Kulig "Cold War"

Commentary - So with SAG and BAFTA there are six actresses for five slots. I think Blunt is still stronger overall than Davis, as Mary Poppins Returns has more traction than Widows. The other four are good to go. But I also think that two foreign language contenders cannot be discounted. Yalitza Aparicio has been along the way the whole season, but except for the Critics Choice (where they nominated like seven actresses) and regional critics awards, she has not made a dent with the industry. Neither has Joanna Kulig, but Cold War is coming on strong, and could crash an even bigger race. I think that it continues to grow in popularity since BAFTA, where it had its best showing of the season. If it peaks at the right time, or if the love of Roma is really really strong, these two actresses could crash the race.

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