Monday, July 23, 2018

The Oscar Narrative: July Nomination Predictions - Best Supporting Actress

July Nomination Predictions
Amy Adams "Backseat"
Claire Foy "First Man"
Nicole Kidman "Boy Erased"
Regina King "If Beale Street Could Talk"
Margot Robbie "Mary Queen of Scots"

Other Contenders - Vera Farmiga "The Front Runner", Rachel Weisz "The Favourite", Emma Stone "The Favourite", Katherine Waterston "Mid '90s", Laura Dern "JT Leroy", Kathy Bates "On the Basis of Sex", Amy Ryan "Beautiful Boy", Maura Tierney "Beautiful Boy", Elizabeth Debicki "Widows", Cynthia Erivo "Widows", Michelle Rodriguez "Widows", Leslie Mann "Welcome to Marwen", Meryl Streep "Mary Poppins Returns", Tatiana Maslany "Destroyer", Anna Deveare Smith "Can You Ever Forgive Me?", Natalie Portman "The Life and Death of John F. Donovan", Lupita Nyong'o "Black Panther", Letitia Wright "Black Panther", Danai Gurira "Black Panther", Ruth Negga "Ad Astra"

Commentary - The front five have not changed much since April. I moved Vera Farmiga to a sixth place, but its not because she can't, I just needed a slot for Nicole Kidman. The first trailer for Boy Erased looks like a stunner, and she is a perennial favorite, and has been nominated several times before for the emotional mom role. The other five, Adams, Foy, King, and Robbie, still feel like strong bets. The Favourite is gaining in buzz, and it has two Oscar winners in this category this year, Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz. If Mid '90s is this year, then Katherine Waterston could be this year's Laurie Metcalf. The supporting casts of Beautiful Boy and Widows are potentials, but we will have to see which of the cast members rises to the top. Meryl Streep has a big cameo in Mary Poppins Returns, the Black Panther girls are all fantastic, and names like Ruth Negga, Tatiana Maslany, Leslie Mann, Anna Deveare Smith, Natalie Portman, and Kathy Bates should not be ignored.

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