Monday, July 30, 2018

The Oscar Narrative: July Nomination Predictions - Best Actress

July Nomination Predictions
Glenn Close "The Wife"
Viola Davis "Widows"
Felicity Jones "On the Basis of Sex"
Melissa McCarthy "Can You Ever Forgive Me?"
Saoirse Ronan "Mary, Queen of Scots"

Other Contenders - Olivia Colman "The Favourite", Carey Mulligan "Wildfire", Lady Gaga "A Star is Born", Toni Collette "Hereditary", Emma Stone "The Favourite", Renee Zellweger "Judy", Emily Blunt "Mary Poppins Returns", Emily Blunt "A Quiet Place", Penelope Cruz "Everybody Knows", Charlize Theron "Tully", Keira Knightley "Collette", Kiki Layne "If Beale Street Could Talk", Maggie Gyllenhaal "The Kindergarten Teacher", Rachel McAdams "Disobedience", Rachel Weisz "Disobedience", Hilary Swank "What They Had", Kathryn Hahn "Private Life"

Commentary - Well Cate Blanchett is out as Where'd You Go Bernadette moves to March 2019 (ouch, must not be great), and Rio, now called Let It Fall Back, is moving as well so there goes Michelle Williams. I still have Glenn Close, Viola Davis, and Saoirse Ronan in, and all three still seem really strong. I also still think that Melissa McCarthy has a sleeper on her hands with her dark turn in Can You Ever Forgive Me? Finally, the first trailer for On the Basis of Sex, and the resurgence of popularity for RBG could spell Oscar gold for previous nominee Felicity Jones. Beyond those five, I am looking closely at Olivia Colman for The Favourite (and maybe her co-star Emma Stone if she gets bumped up). Lady Gaga is getting a lot of buzz, but I am still a bit weary of the film's awards prospects. Toni Collette and Charlize Theron are both big potentials from the first half of the year, and Emily Blunt has two big possibilities. Also look out for Renee Zellweger's comeback as Judy Garland, Keira Knightley, newcomer Kiki Layne, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Kathryn Hahn, and the duo from Disobedience.

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